[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":76},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-russia-capture-sofiivka-by-february-28":3},{"event":4,"related":40},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":17},"197897","will-russia-capture-sofiivka-by-february-28","Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494433° N, 37.377320° E in Sofiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FSo1.png\n\nIntersection Location in Sofiivka: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FSo2.png\n\nSofiivka Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FTo3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FiwjvuyoJAH6WCdaQ7\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will capture the specified intersection in Sofiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by February 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is based primarily on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if the primary sources become unavailable. For a “Yes” resolution, the intersection must be shown as under Russian control on the relevant map, or Russia must gain actual control through a negotiated settlement; temporary map glitches do not count. The market matters because it tracks battlefield control in eastern Ukraine and reflects trader sentiment on the likelihood of territorial advances before the deadline. Current market probability is not provided here, so the event should be read as an open-ended forecast rather than a settled outcome. The listing sits within the Ukraine and geopolitical forecast categories, making it relevant for users following Russia-Ukraine war developments, map-based resolution rules, and prediction market odds on territorial changes in Donetsk Oblast.","GEOPOLITICS","Ukraine",[11,13,14,15],"Politics","Ukraine Map","Geopolitics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-russia-capture-sofiivka-by-february-28-jbGdPvoHnazS.jpg",0,6657.126135999999,15470.048592,2877.7622,3116.6390300000003,8545.1300856,true,false,"2026-02-04T00:55:34.275Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-02-03T22:52:50.944Z","2026-06-16T10:02:00.187Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-russia-capture-sofiivka-by-february-28?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"will russia capture sofiivka by...?","will russia capture sofiivka by...? prediction","will russia capture sofiivka by...? odds","will russia capture sofiivka by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:29:13.547Z","2026-06-16T10:08:27.097Z",[41,53,65],{"id":42,"title":43,"slug":44,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":45,"probability":17,"createdAt":48,"updatedAt":49,"resolutionDate":50,"description":51,"summary":51,"volume1wk":52,"featured":24},"25036","Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?","will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by",[11,13,46,15,47,14],"World","Russia Capture","2026-05-30T10:42:50.012Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.947Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z","This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.",496351.26546699996,{"id":54,"title":55,"slug":56,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":57,"probability":59,"createdAt":60,"updatedAt":61,"resolutionDate":62,"description":63,"summary":63,"volume1wk":64,"featured":24},"48978","Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?","will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026",[11,58,15,13,46,14],"Russia",0.55,"2026-06-16T10:07:58.306Z","2026-06-16T10:02:14.415Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. \n\nOnce Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n",289861.946301,{"id":66,"title":67,"slug":68,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":69,"probability":17,"createdAt":72,"updatedAt":73,"resolutionDate":26,"description":74,"summary":74,"volume1wk":75,"featured":24},"131611","Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-stepnohirsk-by",[11,14,58,70,13,71,47,15],"putin","Military Actions","2026-05-30T10:42:52.686Z","2026-06-16T10:01:38.867Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStepnohirsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Prymorske\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FCwF1b64Qo49PvUZw5\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.",213770.77582,1781606238963]