[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":74},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-russia-capture-mala-tokmachka-by":3},{"event":4,"related":40},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":15,"probability":16,"volume24hr":17,"volume1wk":18,"liquidity":19,"openInterest":20,"trendScore":21,"active":22,"closed":23,"featured":23,"startDate":24,"endDate":25,"createdAtRemote":26,"updatedAtRemote":27,"affiliateUrl":28,"polymarketUrl":28,"searchKeywords":29,"syncedAt":37,"createdAt":38,"marketCount":39},"508270","will-russia-capture-mala-tokmachka-by","Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FMala+Tokmachka1.png\n\nIntersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FMala+Tokmachka2.png\n\nMala Tokmachka Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FMala+Tokmachka3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FqFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will take control of the specified intersection in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the resolution deadline of 11:59 PM ET on 2026-09-30. The market resolves “Yes” only if the location is shown as Russian-controlled on the ISW Ukraine map, or if control is otherwise established under the event rules. Traders are effectively forecasting an expected outcome based on battlefield developments in the Ukraine map category, with the result determined by persistent red shading on the ISW map or, if needed, fallback reporting sources.\n\nThis event matters because small territorial changes can signal broader shifts in the Zaporizhzhia front and shape market sentiment around the pace of the war. The current market probability is about 6.5%, indicating traders see a relatively low chance of capture before the deadline, though odds can change as new reporting and map updates emerge. As with other prediction market events, the forecast reflects collective beliefs about future control rather than a guarantee of what will happen.","GEOPOLITICS","Ukraine Map",[11,13,14],"Ukraine","Geopolitics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-russia-capture-all-of-prymorske-by-jcMx3oA7tIqU.jpg",6.5,10.638283,70109.27300300001,10403.071,4312.160245,23118.7152424,true,false,"2026-05-21T18:39:49.593Z","2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z","2026-05-21T03:13:46.251Z","2026-05-30T10:34:23.413Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-russia-capture-mala-tokmachka-by?r=predstack",[30,31,32,33,34,35,36],"will russia capture mala tokmachka by...?","will russia capture mala tokmachka by...? prediction","will russia capture mala tokmachka by...? odds","will russia capture mala tokmachka by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:17:45.807Z","2026-05-30T10:42:59.542Z",0,[41,52,65],{"id":42,"title":43,"slug":44,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":45,"probability":39,"createdAt":47,"updatedAt":48,"resolutionDate":49,"description":50,"summary":50,"volume1wk":51,"featured":23},"205273","Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...?","will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-february-28",[11,13,14,46],"Politics","2026-05-30T10:42:55.607Z","2026-05-30T10:30:02.127Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) between market creation and February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",118346.752767,{"id":53,"title":54,"slug":55,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":56,"probability":39,"createdAt":60,"updatedAt":61,"resolutionDate":62,"description":63,"summary":63,"volume1wk":64,"featured":23},"139550","Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by",[11,14,13,57,58,46,59],"Russia","putin","Military Actions","2026-05-30T10:42:58.638Z","2026-05-30T10:31:05.274Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nDonetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If those areas are not simultaneously shaded red by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of a municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within a municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this may still qualify.\n\nOnce Russia has captured the entirety of the above-specified municipalities simultaneously, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: \n\n1. Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.\n\n2. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will not qualify, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. Similarly, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Control must be established through military conquest.",77495.330072,{"id":66,"title":67,"slug":68,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":69,"probability":39,"createdAt":70,"updatedAt":71,"resolutionDate":49,"description":72,"summary":72,"volume1wk":73,"featured":23},"194051","Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-ternuvate-by-february-28",[11,46,14,13],"2026-05-30T10:43:20.809Z","2026-05-30T10:33:18.099Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTernuvate will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FdSsbhxhymtVQgM7RA \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.",14293.535252000001,1780676635297]