[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":82},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-russia-capture-kindrativka-by-march-31":3},{"event":4,"related":40},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":17},"216826","will-russia-capture-kindrativka-by-march-31","Will Russia capture Kindrativka by...?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 51.141847° N, 34.771637° E in Kindrativka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FKS.png\n\nIntersection Location in Kindrativka: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FKS2.png\n\nKindrativka Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FKS3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FBTC6vHHmyYcJ1WETA\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","Will Russia capture Kindrativka by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will capture a specific intersection in Kindrativka, Sumy Oblast, by the resolution deadline. The market resolves to Yes if the intersection at 51.141847° N, 34.771637° E is shown as Russian-controlled on the ISW Ukraine map, with qualifying red shading that persists through the next full daily update cycle. If Russia gains actual control through a negotiated settlement, that also counts for a Yes outcome.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks battlefield movement in northeastern Ukraine and gives traders a real-time forecast of market sentiment around territorial control. The current market probability is 0%, though that figure reflects trading activity and expected outcome rather than a guarantee. The market remains active through May 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, with the forecast ultimately determined by ISW, and DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if primary sources are unavailable.\n\nFor prediction market participants, this is a focused event prediction tied to Ukraine map developments, Russian control, and short-term geopolitical odds.","GEOPOLITICS","Geopolitics",[11,13,14,15],"Politics","Ukraine","Ukraine Map","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-russia-capture-kindrativka-by-march-31-GmKFMjFCt-vQ.jpg",0,414.269367,12531.543152999997,1804.88174,7107.850248,4327.5739773999985,true,false,"2026-02-19T20:45:31.058Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-02-19T13:25:51.365Z","2026-05-30T10:40:13.312Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-russia-capture-kindrativka-by-march-31?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"will russia capture kindrativka by...?","will russia capture kindrativka by...? prediction","will russia capture kindrativka by...? odds","will russia capture kindrativka by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:41:45.718Z","2026-05-30T10:43:22.367Z",[41,57,70],{"id":42,"title":43,"slug":44,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":45,"probability":17,"createdAt":52,"updatedAt":53,"resolutionDate":54,"description":55,"summary":55,"volume1wk":56,"featured":23},"310530","Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?","iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by",[11,46,47,48,13,49,50,51],"Trump","Middle East","Iran Ceasefire","U.S. x Iran","Iran","Nuclear","2026-05-30T10:42:44.555Z","2026-05-30T10:32:05.315Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",4017181.6218990027,{"id":58,"title":59,"slug":60,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":61,"probability":17,"createdAt":66,"updatedAt":67,"resolutionDate":26,"description":68,"summary":68,"volume1wk":69,"featured":24},"386788","Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[11,62,48,63,50,64,65],"Lebanon","Israel","Israel x Iran","Hezbollah","2026-05-30T10:42:45.304Z","2026-05-30T10:36:14.427Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",2228964.1721680006,{"id":71,"title":72,"slug":73,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":74,"probability":77,"createdAt":78,"updatedAt":79,"resolutionDate":54,"description":80,"summary":80,"volume1wk":81,"featured":24},"73130","Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",[11,13,47,63,50,46,75,76],"World","Military Strikes",18.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.702Z","2026-05-30T10:32:16.867Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.",1710369.6938979982,1780676597280]