[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":83},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-russia-capture-all-of-kupiansk-by":3},{"event":4,"related":46},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":22,"probability":23,"volume24hr":24,"volume1wk":25,"liquidity":26,"openInterest":27,"trendScore":28,"active":29,"closed":30,"featured":30,"startDate":31,"endDate":32,"createdAtRemote":33,"updatedAtRemote":34,"affiliateUrl":35,"polymarketUrl":35,"searchKeywords":36,"syncedAt":44,"createdAt":45,"marketCount":23},"72352","will-russia-capture-all-of-kupiansk-by","Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nKupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Moskovka\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fh-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.\n\nOnce Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nKupiansk Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FKupiansk+location.jpeg\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.","Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will control the entire municipality of Kupiansk in Ukraine by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves using the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if needed. In plain terms, traders are forecasting whether the full municipality will be shaded red on the reference map, indicating Russian capture, or remain outside Russian control by the deadline. Because the outcome depends on territorial control rather than an announcement alone, the event is closely tied to battlefield conditions, map updates, and reporting on the Russia-Ukraine war. It also allows for a Yes resolution if Russia gains control through a negotiated settlement. Current market probability is not available in the data, but the prediction market reflects ongoing market sentiment around military actions in Kupiansk, Russia, Ukraine, and the broader geopolitical forecast for the region. The event remains active through the resolution window, making it relevant for event prediction tracking and geopolitical odds analysis.","GEOPOLITICS","World",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21],"Kupyansk","Geopolitics","Politics","putin","Military Actions","Russia Capture","Ukraine Map","Ukraine","Russia","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-russia-capture-all-of-kupiansk-by-UORKa-3_5ecO.jpg",0,439.03400000000005,166930.00940800007,7930.67158,19232.016409,51884.65413840002,true,false,"2025-11-04T15:54:20.687Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-03T21:18:48.999Z","2026-05-30T10:31:53.239Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-russia-capture-all-of-kupiansk-by?r=predstack",[37,38,39,40,41,42,43],"will russia capture all of kupiansk by...?","will russia capture all of kupiansk by...? prediction","will russia capture all of kupiansk by...? odds","will russia capture all of kupiansk by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:10:41.245Z","2026-05-30T10:42:53.083Z",[47,61,72],{"id":48,"title":49,"slug":50,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":51,"probability":55,"createdAt":56,"updatedAt":57,"resolutionDate":58,"description":59,"summary":59,"volume1wk":60,"featured":30},"34051","Netanyahu out by...?","netanyahu-out-before-2027",[11,14,52,53,15,54],"Middle East","Israel","Earn 4%",53.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.232Z","2026-05-30T10:34:01.136Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from\u002Fis removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" regardless of if\u002Fwhen he actually steps down.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",470688.30231599987,{"id":62,"title":63,"slug":64,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":65,"probability":67,"createdAt":68,"updatedAt":69,"resolutionDate":32,"description":70,"summary":70,"volume1wk":71,"featured":30},"107726","Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?","will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026",[11,66,14,15],"China",0.95,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.544Z","2026-05-30T10:37:57.200Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",407490.007161001,{"id":73,"title":74,"slug":75,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":76,"probability":77,"createdAt":78,"updatedAt":79,"resolutionDate":80,"description":81,"summary":81,"volume1wk":82,"featured":30},"281143","Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?","will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026",[11,15,66,14],2.8,"2026-05-30T10:42:57.194Z","2026-05-30T10:38:22.054Z","2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",93684.47096800001,1780676635191]