[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":82},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-russia-capture-all-of-huliaipole-by-february-28":3},{"event":4,"related":40},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":17},"198776","will-russia-capture-all-of-huliaipole-by-february-28","Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47°39'45.5\"N 36°15'13.1\"E) by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nHuliaipole will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures the entirety of Huliaipole, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FvXBbP9idYDbbC21RA\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.","Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will take full control of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhya Oblast, Ukraine by the resolution date. The market resolves to Yes only if the entire municipality is shown as Russian-controlled on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map, or if equivalent credible reporting confirms control under the market rules. It will also count if Russia gains control through a negotiated settlement, provided actual control is established. The forecast matters because Huliaipole sits within the broader Russia-Ukraine war and is tracked by traders watching frontline shifts, territorial advances, and changing market sentiment. The current market probability is 0%, indicating traders assign no measurable odds to a Yes outcome at present. The event opens on February 6, 2026 and is tied to a February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET deadline for the territory to be captured. As a prediction market event, it reflects event prediction and geopolitical forecast activity rather than a policy or financial recommendation.","GEOPOLITICS","Geopolitics",[11,13,14,15],"Ukraine Map","Politics","Ukraine","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-russia-capture-all-of-huliaipole-by-february-28-3bFigBO-k0E1.jpg",0,404.871,110820.47783799998,4881.66297,12878.987163,34424.911445399994,true,false,"2026-02-06T00:21:46.394Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-02-04T22:23:47.171Z","2026-05-30T10:38:29.012Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-russia-capture-all-of-huliaipole-by-february-28?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"will russia capture all of huliaipole by...?","will russia capture all of huliaipole by...? prediction","will russia capture all of huliaipole by...? odds","will russia capture all of huliaipole by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:14:01.541Z","2026-05-30T10:42:56.112Z",[41,57,70],{"id":42,"title":43,"slug":44,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":45,"probability":17,"createdAt":52,"updatedAt":53,"resolutionDate":54,"description":55,"summary":55,"volume1wk":56,"featured":23},"310530","Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?","iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by",[11,46,47,48,14,49,50,51],"Trump","Middle East","Iran Ceasefire","U.S. x Iran","Iran","Nuclear","2026-05-30T10:42:44.555Z","2026-05-30T10:32:05.315Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",4017181.6218990027,{"id":58,"title":59,"slug":60,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":61,"probability":17,"createdAt":66,"updatedAt":67,"resolutionDate":26,"description":68,"summary":68,"volume1wk":69,"featured":24},"386788","Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[11,62,48,63,50,64,65],"Lebanon","Israel","Israel x Iran","Hezbollah","2026-05-30T10:42:45.304Z","2026-05-30T10:36:14.427Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",2228964.1721680006,{"id":71,"title":72,"slug":73,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":74,"probability":77,"createdAt":78,"updatedAt":79,"resolutionDate":54,"description":80,"summary":80,"volume1wk":81,"featured":24},"73130","Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",[11,14,47,63,50,46,75,76],"World","Military Strikes",18.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.702Z","2026-05-30T10:32:16.867Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.",1710369.6938979982,1780676661817]