[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":87},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":43},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":42},"238279","will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026","Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nReza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.\n\nIf Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n","Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Reza Pahlavi will de facto hold and exercise the powers of Iran’s head of state by December 31, 2026. The forecast is not about formal titles or international recognition; instead, it asks whether he would have effective governing authority inside Iran, including control over the armed forces, national institutions, executive decision-making, and core state infrastructure. This makes the event relevant to Iran politics, regime change scenarios, and broader U.S.-Iran tensions.\n\nThe market opened on March 1, 2026 and resolves at the end of the year, with credible reporting as the primary source for the outcome. Current market probability sits at about 6.5%, suggesting traders see a low chance that Reza Pahlavi will meet the criteria for leadership by the deadline. As a prediction market, it reflects live market sentiment and odds around a highly uncertain geopolitical forecast rather than a formal political transition.","GEOPOLITICS","Iran",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"shah","Geopolitics","Politics","Reza Pahlavi","Iran Regime","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-this-year-XQPcw_pYOeJp.jpg",5.75,4605.048133999999,38740.74244400017,117252.44972,374380.861295,37375.236744200054,true,false,"2026-03-01T03:43:39.133Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-03-01T03:34:51.846Z","2026-06-16T10:01:38.010Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"will reza pahlavi lead iran in 2026?","will reza pahlavi lead iran in 2026? prediction","will reza pahlavi lead iran in 2026? odds","will reza pahlavi lead iran in 2026? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:08:12.762Z","2026-05-30T10:42:45.058Z",0,[44,60,71],{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":48,"probability":42,"createdAt":56,"updatedAt":57,"resolutionDate":28,"description":58,"summary":58,"volume1wk":59,"featured":25},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[11,49,50,51,52,53,54,14,15,55],"Trump","ceasefire","Iran Ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","U.S. x Iran","Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-06-16T10:07:37.026Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",80346197.77405979,{"id":61,"title":62,"slug":63,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":64,"probability":65,"createdAt":66,"updatedAt":67,"resolutionDate":68,"description":69,"summary":69,"volume1wk":70,"featured":25},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[11,15,51,14],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z",null,"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",25312735.30568604,{"id":72,"title":73,"slug":74,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":75,"probability":81,"createdAt":82,"updatedAt":83,"resolutionDate":84,"description":85,"summary":85,"volume1wk":86,"featured":25},"429426","What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?","what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-may-31",[11,76,77,51,49,78,79,14,15,54,80],"Sanctions","toll","Strait of Hormuz","Enrich","Uranium",11.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.605Z","2026-05-30T10:37:10.758Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nContinued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:\n\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.\n- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.\n\nAgreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.",3880525.7414259994,1781809686198]