[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":85},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-mara-corina-machado-enter-venezuela-by-january-31":3},{"event":4,"related":40},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":17},"140376","will-mara-corina-machado-enter-venezuela-by-january-31","María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?","If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and Janaury 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? is a political prediction market asking whether the Venezuelan opposition leader will physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela during the defined window, from market creation through January 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A visit only counts if Machado enters Venezuelan land territory; flying over Venezuelan airspace or traveling through maritime territory does not satisfy the resolution criteria. The market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting, making news coverage the key source for traders tracking the outcome. This event matters because Machado is a prominent figure in Venezuelan politics, and any confirmed return to the country could carry significant political and symbolic implications. As of the latest market data, the probability is 0%, reflecting current market sentiment and the odds implied by active traders, though that forecast can change if conditions or reporting shift. The market sits in the Politics category under the Trump-Machado subcategory and is searchable under terms such as political forecast, political probability, and event prediction.","POLITICS","Trump-Machado",[11,13,14,15],"Politics","Trump","Venezuela","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-mara-corina-machado-enter-venezuela-by-january-31-2JimdK2AkPpQ.jpg",0,285.339247,491321.45731600013,19828.28571,75738.42267,151504.76396030004,true,false,"2026-01-03T08:15:26.226Z","2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-01-03T08:08:46.739Z","2026-05-30T10:31:38.038Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-mara-corina-machado-enter-venezuela-by-january-31?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"maría corina machado enters venezuela by...?","maría corina machado enters venezuela by...? prediction","maría corina machado enters venezuela by...? odds","maría corina machado enters venezuela by...? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:06:25.453Z","2026-05-30T10:42:48.978Z",[41,55,73],{"id":42,"title":43,"slug":44,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":45,"probability":49,"createdAt":50,"updatedAt":51,"resolutionDate":52,"description":53,"summary":53,"volume1wk":54,"featured":24},"143443","Venezuela leader end of 2026?","venezuela-leader-end-of-2026",[11,15,14,13,46,47,48],"Geopolitics","maduro","Rewards 20, 4.5, 50",5.45,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.124Z","2026-05-30T10:31:37.168Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"officially holds\" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. \n\nIf the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.un.org\u002Fdgacm\u002Fen\u002Fcontent\u002Fprotocol\u002Fhshgnfa).  \n\nIn the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan  government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. \n\nIf no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. \n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. \n\nNote: this market is mutually exclusive. \n",641635.4726760001,{"id":56,"title":57,"slug":58,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":59,"probability":67,"createdAt":68,"updatedAt":69,"resolutionDate":70,"description":71,"summary":71,"volume1wk":72,"featured":23},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[13,60,61,62,63,64,65,66],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":74,"title":75,"slug":76,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":77,"probability":17,"createdAt":80,"updatedAt":81,"resolutionDate":82,"description":83,"summary":83,"volume1wk":84,"featured":23},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[13,46,78,79],"U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,1780676611771]