[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":79},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-october-31":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":19},"61890","will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-october-31","Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"major ground offensive\" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Israel will begin a large-scale ground operation in Gaza within the specified window. The market resolves to Yes only if Israel initiates an offensive involving more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the operation; smaller raids, special operations, and limited border incursions do not count. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks a major escalation risk in the Israel-Gaza conflict and reflects trader expectations around military activity in the Middle East. The market opened on October 19, 2025 and is set to run through December 31, 2025, giving participants a defined timeframe to forecast the expected outcome. Current market probability is 0%, suggesting traders see no chance of a qualifying offensive at present, though prediction market odds can change quickly as new information emerges. As a geopolitical forecast, it is closely watched by users following Israel, Gaza, World, and Middle East developments.","GEOPOLITICS","Israel",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"World","Middle East","Politics","Geopolitics","Gaza","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-october-31-MOKIcK-3c-fq.jpg",0,4136.636931999999,96094.48253300002,33037.5534,37324.363217000006,37504.1739059,true,false,"2025-10-19T19:13:45.872Z","2025-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-10-19T19:03:36.450Z","2026-05-30T10:39:52.448Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-october-31?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"will israel launch a major ground offensive in gaza by...?","will israel launch a major ground offensive in gaza by...? prediction","will israel launch a major ground offensive in gaza by...? odds","will israel launch a major ground offensive in gaza by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:14:57.783Z","2026-05-30T10:42:57.006Z",[43,53,66],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":19,"createdAt":48,"updatedAt":49,"resolutionDate":50,"description":51,"summary":51,"volume1wk":52,"featured":26},"57057","Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?","israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31",[11,16,13,14,17],"2026-05-30T10:42:46.009Z","2026-05-30T10:31:52.407Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Fisrael-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09\u002F\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",1560920.3989269985,{"id":54,"title":55,"slug":56,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":57,"probability":19,"createdAt":62,"updatedAt":63,"resolutionDate":50,"description":64,"summary":64,"volume1wk":65,"featured":26},"139507","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?","will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30",[11,13,58,14,16,59,60,61],"Iran","shah","Reza Pahlavi","Iran Regime","2026-05-30T10:42:47.481Z","2026-05-30T10:31:40.133Z","If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",871637.6565629999,{"id":67,"title":68,"slug":69,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":70,"probability":73,"createdAt":74,"updatedAt":75,"resolutionDate":76,"description":77,"summary":77,"volume1wk":78,"featured":26},"72347","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026",[11,58,71,13,72,16,14,15,60,61],"Trump","Khamenei",14.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.165Z","2026-05-30T10:36:11.217Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. ",640837.0614000001,1780676609382]