[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":89},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman":3},{"event":4,"related":45},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":20,"probability":21,"volume24hr":22,"volume1wk":23,"liquidity":24,"openInterest":25,"trendScore":26,"active":27,"closed":28,"featured":28,"startDate":29,"endDate":30,"createdAtRemote":31,"updatedAtRemote":32,"affiliateUrl":33,"polymarketUrl":33,"searchKeywords":34,"syncedAt":42,"createdAt":43,"marketCount":44},"164335","will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman","Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. District Court in the Northern District of California sides with Elon Musk in Elon Musk v. Sam Altman et al by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the case reaches a determination without settlement, the court will be considered to side with Musk based on the following criteria (in order of priority):\n\n1. If Elon Musk receives a larger net monetary award than Altman et al (after offsetting any awards against the parties), the court will have sided with Musk. Compensatory damages, punitive damages, restitution, and statutory damages are included in monetary awards. Monetary awards do not include Attorney’s fees or other costs which are excluded from the monetary recovery calculation.\n\n2. If there is no net monetary advantage for either party, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on claims seeking the largest amount of relief, in dollars, in the original pleadings of the case, as compared to Altman et al. If the relevant relief amounts are equivalent or can’t be determined, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on a greater number of primary causes of action than Altman et al. Procedural claims, discovery sanctions, and attorney's fee requests will not be considered primary causes of action.\n\n3. If the case terminates without substantive judgment, the court will have sided with Musk if Altman et al voluntarily dismiss all claims against Elon Musk with prejudice. All other scenarios of termination without substantive judgment, including if there are no claims against Musk, will result in the court not siding with either party and will resolve this market to “No”.\n\nIf Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Altman et al, this market will resolve to “No”. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with mutual releases and no disclosed payment direction, or if settlement terms are sealed and a consensus of credible reporting does not indicate payment direction within 7 days of the settlement announcement, the court will not have sided with either party and this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAdditional notes:\n\nIf the court issues a default judgment in favor of Elon Musk, this market will use the listed criteria above for resolution. If the court issues a default judgment against Elon Musk, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the court issues a full summary judgment in favor of Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk.\n\nA partial summary judgment will apply to resolved claims only, and remaining claims will proceed under the above listed resolution criteria.\n\nA summary judgment on liability only will not constitute a court siding with either party until the damages are determined.\n\nMistrials with prejudice will be considered to be case termination and will be evaluated according to criteria 3 above.\n\nMistrials without prejudice, hung juries, or mistrials due to procedural errors will not constitute the court siding with either party. If retrial is ordered and occurs before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resolution of this market will be based on the result of that retrial.\n\nAny sua sponte judicial dismissal will be treated according to whether the dismissal is with or without prejudice. If unspecified, it will be treated as without prejudice.\n\nThis market applies only to trial-level case resolutions and does not include any appeals.\n\nOnly claims directly involving Elon Musk will be considered; third-party claims, interpleader actions, and claims between other parties will not be considered.\n\nProcedural victories will not be considered as part of the court’s decision unless accompanied by substantive relief on the merits of the case.\n\nInjunctive relief will only count as the court’s decision if it provides the primary relief sought in the original pleadings.\n\nCase consolidation with other proceedings will not affect this market’s outcome unless the consolidated outcome directly resolves the dispute between Elon Musk and Altman et al.\n\nIf there are multiple defendants, the court must side with Elon Musk relative to the combination of all opposing parties. Joint and several liability awards will be attributed to Elon Musk based on Musk’s individual liability percentage. Cross-claims between co-defendants will not affect the court’s decision relative to Elon Musk.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? is a technology prediction market tracking the trial-level outcome of Musk v. Sam Altman et al in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California. The market resolves to “Yes” only if the court ultimately sides with Elon Musk under the event’s detailed criteria, which prioritize a net monetary award, then the largest dollar amount of relief, then the number of primary causes of action won. It also accounts for specific settlement outcomes, dismissals, summary judgment, and other termination scenarios, while excluding appeals. The forecast runs through December 31, 2026, giving traders time to assess court filings, rulings, and any settlement developments. Current market probability for Musk to win is about 2.15%, indicating strongly bearish market sentiment on a Musk victory. With tags spanning OpenAI, xAI, AI, courts, and politics, the event sits at the intersection of tech litigation and AI industry rivalry, making it relevant to event prediction, legal analysis, and broader tech market expectations.","TECH","OpenAI",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19],"Politics","Musk v. Altman","xAI","Courts","AI","Elon Musk","Tech","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman-3b7rjuMNHGHy.jpg",2.15,4044.803385,24428.59117799999,36173.33088,215320.819169,16585.6452219,true,false,"2026-01-14T19:15:03.663Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-01-14T19:01:45.055Z","2026-05-30T10:30:45.456Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman?r=predstack",[35,36,37,38,39,40,41],"will elon musk win his case against sam altman?","will elon musk win his case against sam altman? prediction","will elon musk win his case against sam altman? odds","will elon musk win his case against sam altman? probability","technology prediction market","tech forecast","technology probability","2026-06-05T13:30:09.441Z","2026-05-30T10:43:11.270Z",0,[46,59,74],{"id":47,"title":48,"slug":49,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":50,"probability":44,"createdAt":54,"updatedAt":55,"resolutionDate":56,"description":57,"summary":57,"volume1wk":58,"featured":28},"36307","GPT-6 released by…?","gpt-6-released-by",[11,51,52,17,19,53],"GPT-5","Big Tech","sam altman","2026-05-30T10:43:20.313Z","2026-05-30T10:32:19.279Z","2025-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",14807.875348,{"id":60,"title":61,"slug":62,"category":10,"subcategory":17,"tags":63,"probability":68,"createdAt":69,"updatedAt":70,"resolutionDate":71,"description":72,"summary":72,"volume1wk":73,"featured":27},"57711","Largest Company end of June?","largest-company-end-of-june-712",[17,19,52,64,65,66,67],"Economy","DeepSeek","Business","Finance",89,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.353Z","2026-05-30T10:36:33.619Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",2205699.1277590003,{"id":75,"title":76,"slug":77,"category":10,"subcategory":67,"tags":78,"probability":83,"createdAt":84,"updatedAt":85,"resolutionDate":86,"description":87,"summary":87,"volume1wk":88,"featured":27},"500775","Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?","will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31",[67,79,80,19,52,17,81,53,11,82],"Privates","llm","chatgpt","OpenAI IPO",6.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:56.965Z","2026-05-30T10:34:16.260Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. \n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.",98053.93702400001,1780676629818]