[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":83},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":40},"281143","will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026","Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether China will commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Taiwan by the September 30, 2026 deadline, with the market resolving at 11:59 PM ET. The event is framed around official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a permanent UN Security Council member, though credible reporting may also be used to determine the outcome. As a World politics forecast, it focuses on a major Taiwan Strait escalation and the broader strategic risks that such an invasion would pose for regional and global security. Current market probability is about 2.8%, indicating that traders assign a low but non-zero chance to the expected outcome. The prediction market remains active through the end date, and market sentiment will likely continue to reflect developments in China-Taiwan relations, military activity, and international diplomatic signals. This event prediction is closely watched because it sits at the intersection of geopolitics, security analysis, and crisis forecasting.","GEOPOLITICS","World",[11,13,14,15],"Politics","China","Geopolitics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fchina-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg",2.8,3331.5937310000004,93684.47096800001,119161.57108,215732.247468,53603.4523719,true,false,"2026-03-17T23:28:21.782Z","2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z","2026-03-17T23:24:13.788Z","2026-05-30T10:38:22.054Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"will china invade taiwan by september 30, 2026?","will china invade taiwan by september 30, 2026? prediction","will china invade taiwan by september 30, 2026? odds","will china invade taiwan by september 30, 2026? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:15:09.282Z","2026-05-30T10:42:57.194Z",0,[42,56,67],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":46,"probability":50,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":53,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":24},"34051","Netanyahu out by...?","netanyahu-out-before-2027",[11,15,47,48,13,49],"Middle East","Israel","Earn 4%",53.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.232Z","2026-05-30T10:34:01.136Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from\u002Fis removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" regardless of if\u002Fwhen he actually steps down.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",470688.30231599987,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":60,"probability":61,"createdAt":62,"updatedAt":63,"resolutionDate":64,"description":65,"summary":65,"volume1wk":66,"featured":24},"107726","Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?","will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026",[11,14,15,13],0.95,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.544Z","2026-05-30T10:37:57.200Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",407490.007161001,{"id":68,"title":69,"slug":70,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":71,"probability":40,"createdAt":79,"updatedAt":80,"resolutionDate":64,"description":81,"summary":81,"volume1wk":82,"featured":24},"72352","Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-kupiansk-by",[11,72,15,13,73,74,75,76,77,78],"Kupyansk","putin","Military Actions","Russia Capture","Ukraine Map","Ukraine","Russia","2026-05-30T10:42:53.083Z","2026-05-30T10:31:53.239Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nKupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Moskovka\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fh-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.\n\nOnce Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nKupiansk Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FKupiansk+location.jpeg\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.",166930.00940800007,1780676661099]