[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":83},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":40},"107726","will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026","Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether China will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before the deadline of June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to Yes if such an offensive begins, including actions affecting inhabited islands under Taiwan’s administration, and No if it does not occur by the cutoff. Because this is a world politics event with major implications for regional security, trade, and U.S.-China tensions, it draws attention from traders tracking geopolitical risk and event prediction signals.\n\nMarket sentiment currently implies a 0.95 probability of a Yes outcome, suggesting very strong expectations in the prediction market, though that probability is not a guarantee. Resolution may rely on official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a permanent member of the UN Security Council, with credible reporting also considered. As the end date approaches, odds and trading volume may continue to reflect changing geopolitical developments.","GEOPOLITICS","World",[11,13,14,15],"China","Geopolitics","Politics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fchina-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg",0.95,24872.748788999994,407490.007161001,114025.97088,1499243.405514,157488.57071880027,true,false,"2025-12-17T20:33:19.960Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2025-12-17T20:24:01.996Z","2026-05-30T10:37:57.200Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"will china invade taiwan by june 30, 2026?","will china invade taiwan by june 30, 2026? prediction","will china invade taiwan by june 30, 2026? odds","will china invade taiwan by june 30, 2026? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:07:02.063Z","2026-05-30T10:42:49.544Z",0,[42,56,72],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":46,"probability":50,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":53,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":24},"34051","Netanyahu out by...?","netanyahu-out-before-2027",[11,14,47,48,15,49],"Middle East","Israel","Earn 4%",53.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.232Z","2026-05-30T10:34:01.136Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from\u002Fis removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" regardless of if\u002Fwhen he actually steps down.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",470688.30231599987,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":60,"probability":40,"createdAt":68,"updatedAt":69,"resolutionDate":26,"description":70,"summary":70,"volume1wk":71,"featured":24},"72352","Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-kupiansk-by",[11,61,14,15,62,63,64,65,66,67],"Kupyansk","putin","Military Actions","Russia Capture","Ukraine Map","Ukraine","Russia","2026-05-30T10:42:53.083Z","2026-05-30T10:31:53.239Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nKupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Moskovka\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fh-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.\n\nOnce Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nKupiansk Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FKupiansk+location.jpeg\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.",166930.00940800007,{"id":73,"title":74,"slug":75,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":76,"probability":77,"createdAt":78,"updatedAt":79,"resolutionDate":80,"description":81,"summary":81,"volume1wk":82,"featured":24},"281143","Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?","will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026",[11,15,13,14],2.8,"2026-05-30T10:42:57.194Z","2026-05-30T10:38:22.054Z","2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",93684.47096800001,1780676635177]