[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":79},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":40},"281145","will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether China will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Taiwan before the deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if there is official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a permanent UN Security Council member, or if credible reporting reaches consensus. In practical terms, traders are forecasting the risk of a cross-strait conflict involving the Republic of China (Taiwan), including inhabited islands under its administration. This event matters because any military escalation in the Taiwan Strait would have major implications for regional security, global trade, and international relations. The market is active from March 17, 2026 through December 31, 2027, with current market probability at 15.5%, suggesting traders assign a relatively low but meaningful chance of an invasion within the forecast window. As a geopolitical forecast, it draws attention from participants tracking China, Taiwan, world politics, and broader market sentiment around security risks in East Asia.","GEOPOLITICS","China",[11,13,14,15],"Politics","World","Geopolitics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fchina-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg",15.5,4359.870704,22309.890246,143413.1431,500100.083169,37555.5310458,true,false,"2026-03-17T23:33:55.496Z","2027-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-03-17T23:26:47.679Z","2026-05-30T10:31:59.384Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"will china invade taiwan by december 31, 2027?","will china invade taiwan by december 31, 2027? prediction","will china invade taiwan by december 31, 2027? odds","will china invade taiwan by december 31, 2027? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:31:39.780Z","2026-05-30T10:43:12.634Z",0,[42,53,64],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":46,"probability":47,"createdAt":48,"updatedAt":49,"resolutionDate":50,"description":51,"summary":51,"volume1wk":52,"featured":24},"79231","China x Philippines military clash before 2027?","china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027",[11,14,15],24.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:58.244Z","2026-05-30T10:37:40.652Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",82017.76154799998,{"id":54,"title":55,"slug":56,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":57,"probability":59,"createdAt":60,"updatedAt":61,"resolutionDate":50,"description":62,"summary":62,"volume1wk":63,"featured":24},"208023","Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?","will-xi-jinping-visit-us-before-2027",[11,58,15,13],"Trump",88,"2026-05-30T10:43:01.138Z","2026-05-30T10:31:06.847Z","If Xi Jinping visits the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",59006.658185999986,{"id":65,"title":66,"slug":67,"category":10,"subcategory":68,"tags":69,"probability":40,"createdAt":75,"updatedAt":76,"resolutionDate":50,"description":77,"summary":77,"volume1wk":78,"featured":23},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by","Iran",[68,58,70,71,72,73,74,15,13],"ceasefire","Iran Ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","U.S. x Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.539Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",55575856.145219125,1780676612289]