[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":81},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027":3},{"event":4,"related":43},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":42},"34044","will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027","Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether China will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Taiwan, including inhabited islands, before the December 31, 2026 deadline at 11:59 PM ET. The event sits in the Foreign Policy category and focuses on a major risk in China-Taiwan relations, an issue with broad implications for regional security, global trade, and international diplomacy. In this forecast, traders are pricing the odds of a “Yes” outcome at about 6.55%, suggesting market sentiment currently favors no invasion before the cutoff. Resolution depends on official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a permanent member of the UN Security Council, with credible reporting also able to settle the event. For prediction market participants, this is a high-profile geopolitical forecast tied to event-driven risk, policy signaling, and shifting expectations over time.","GEOPOLITICS","Foreign Policy",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"China","Politics","World","Geopolitics","Earn 4%","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fchina-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg",6.55,74493.91541000013,503213.3193790067,982898.83704,5771314.110239,384790.7209267021,true,false,"2025-07-24T23:47:38.785Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-07-24T22:43:52.620Z","2026-05-30T10:39:51.674Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"will china invade taiwan by end of 2026?","will china invade taiwan by end of 2026? prediction","will china invade taiwan by end of 2026? odds","will china invade taiwan by end of 2026? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:06:23.204Z","2026-05-30T10:42:48.937Z",0,[44,54,70],{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":48,"probability":42,"createdAt":50,"updatedAt":51,"resolutionDate":28,"description":52,"summary":52,"volume1wk":53,"featured":26},"79932","How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?","how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026",[11,15,16,49],"strike","2026-05-30T10:42:55.817Z","2026-05-30T10:31:51.542Z","This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",116077.785777,{"id":55,"title":56,"slug":57,"category":10,"subcategory":58,"tags":59,"probability":42,"createdAt":66,"updatedAt":67,"resolutionDate":28,"description":68,"summary":68,"volume1wk":69,"featured":25},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by","Iran",[58,60,61,62,63,64,65,16,14],"Trump","ceasefire","Iran Ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","U.S. x Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.539Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",55575856.145219125,{"id":71,"title":72,"slug":73,"category":10,"subcategory":58,"tags":74,"probability":75,"createdAt":76,"updatedAt":77,"resolutionDate":78,"description":79,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":25},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[58,14,62,16],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z",null,"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",25312735.30568604,1780676632472]