[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":87},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-china-blockade-taiwan-by-june-30":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"46844","will-china-blockade-taiwan-by-june-30","Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying blockade is:\n- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.\n- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).\n- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation\u002Fairspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.\n\nA qualifying blockade is not:\n- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships\u002Faircraft and do not materially deny access).\n- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber\u002FGPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).\n- Weather\u002Faccident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.\n- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.\n- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel\u002Faircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.","Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the People’s Republic of China will announce or de facto establish an air or naval blockade of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast focuses on a clearly defined outcome: a blockade must materially prevent normal foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan’s main ports or airports for at least 24 hours, under threat or use of force, or through enforced PRC restrictions that broadly deny access. Routine military drills, sanctions, or temporary disruptions without physical interdiction do not qualify. This event matters because a Taiwan blockade would represent a major escalation in cross-strait tensions and a significant geopolitical shock with implications for regional security, global trade, and market sentiment. Traders are currently assigning a very low probability of about 1.2%, suggesting the market expects the outcome to remain unlikely before the end-date. Resolution will depend on a broad consensus of credible reporting, making this a high-scrutiny event prediction for geopolitics and China-Taiwan risk.","GEOPOLITICS","Geopolitics",[11,13,14,15,16],"World","China","Taiwan","HFC","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-china-blockade-taiwan-by-december-31-nh3_qlz0Ip6r.jpg",0.55,8142.13738,92695.288067,108075.81348,517984.918098,53494.8178061,true,false,"2025-09-19T19:16:34.624Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2025-09-19T18:46:06.921Z","2026-06-16T10:05:28.646Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-china-blockade-taiwan-by-june-30?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"will china blockade taiwan by june 30?","will china blockade taiwan by june 30? prediction","will china blockade taiwan by june 30? odds","will china blockade taiwan by june 30? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:08:04.264Z","2026-05-30T10:42:59.971Z",0,[43,61,73],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":41,"createdAt":56,"updatedAt":57,"resolutionDate":58,"description":59,"summary":59,"volume1wk":60,"featured":24},"310530","Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?","iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by",[11,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55],"Trump","Middle East","Iran Ceasefire","Politics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","Nuclear","Negotiation Topics","2026-05-30T10:42:44.555Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.231Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",1350422.5297449993,{"id":62,"title":63,"slug":64,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":65,"probability":67,"createdAt":68,"updatedAt":69,"resolutionDate":70,"description":71,"summary":71,"volume1wk":72,"featured":24},"599086","US-Iran deal text released by...?","us-iran-deal-text-released-byptptpt-20260615224044572",[11,66,52,53,51],"Peace Deal",90.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:14.774Z","2026-06-16T10:05:13.139Z","2026-07-01T03:59:00.000Z","On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.\n\nThe “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify. \n\nA qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement.\n\nA joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.\n",33166.259299,{"id":74,"title":75,"slug":76,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":77,"probability":41,"createdAt":82,"updatedAt":83,"resolutionDate":84,"description":85,"summary":85,"volume1wk":86,"featured":25},"386788","Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[11,78,50,79,53,80,81,66],"Lebanon","Israel","Israel x Iran","Hezbollah","2026-05-30T10:42:45.304Z","2026-06-16T10:01:41.812Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",3214871.9922169973,1781606320152]