[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":80},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-china-blockade-taiwan-by-in-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":40},"536282","will-china-blockade-taiwan-by-in-2026","Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying blockade is:\n- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.\n- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).\n- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation\u002Fairspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.\n\nA qualifying blockade is not:\n- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships\u002Faircraft and do not materially deny access).\n- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber\u002FGPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).\n- Weather\u002Faccident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.\n- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.\n- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel\u002Faircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.","Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market tracking whether the People’s Republic of China will establish an aerial or naval blockade of Taiwan’s main island before December 31, 2026. The forecast focuses on a specific outcome: a blockade that either is officially announced or is de facto established through credible reporting, and that prevents normal commercial ingress or egress to Taiwan’s ports or airports for at least 24 hours. The market excludes drills, sanctions, cyber disruption, weather-related closures, and isolated vessel seizures unless they amount to enforced denial of access.\n\nThis event matters because a blockade of Taiwan would be a major escalation in cross-strait tensions and a significant test of regional security. Traders are currently assigning the event about a 7% probability, indicating low but measurable market expectations for this outcome. The prediction market is active through the end of 2026, and market sentiment will likely respond to military posturing, navigation restrictions, credible reporting, and broader China-Taiwan geopolitical developments.","GEOPOLITICS","Taiwan",[11,13,14,15],"Geopolitics","China","HFC","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-china-blockade-taiwan-by-december-31-nh3_qlz0Ip6r.jpg",7,153.96714100000003,10855.894016,20355.4644,10641.46439,7404.8446553,true,false,"2026-05-29T13:22:38.935Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-05-29T01:16:37.519Z","2026-06-16T10:00:43.298Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-china-blockade-taiwan-by-in-2026?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"will china blockade taiwan by in 2026?","will china blockade taiwan by in 2026? prediction","will china blockade taiwan by in 2026? odds","will china blockade taiwan by in 2026? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:33:20.933Z","2026-06-16T10:08:32.134Z",0,[42,60,71],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":46,"tags":47,"probability":40,"createdAt":56,"updatedAt":57,"resolutionDate":26,"description":58,"summary":58,"volume1wk":59,"featured":23},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by","Iran",[46,48,49,50,51,52,53,13,54,55],"Trump","ceasefire","Iran Ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","U.S. x Iran","Politics","Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-06-16T10:07:37.026Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",80346197.77405979,{"id":61,"title":62,"slug":63,"category":10,"subcategory":46,"tags":64,"probability":65,"createdAt":66,"updatedAt":67,"resolutionDate":68,"description":69,"summary":69,"volume1wk":70,"featured":23},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[46,54,50,13],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z",null,"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",25312735.30568604,{"id":72,"title":73,"slug":74,"category":10,"subcategory":54,"tags":75,"probability":40,"createdAt":76,"updatedAt":77,"resolutionDate":68,"description":78,"summary":78,"volume1wk":79,"featured":23},"517606","US announces new Iran agreement\u002Fceasefire extension by...?","us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by",[54,13,50,46,53,55],"2026-05-30T10:42:44.017Z","2026-06-16T10:06:05.405Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.\n\nA qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:\n \n1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated\u002Ftime-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.\n\n2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.\n\nStatements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify.\n\nThe following would qualify:\n- President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.”\n- An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.”\n- President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.”\n- An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify.\n\nThe following would not qualify:\n- Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement.\n- Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached\n- Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement.\n\n\nAn overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. ",16205133.21684103,1781809682053]