[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":83},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025":3},{"event":4,"related":40},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":17},"18571","will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025","Will any country leave NATO by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nA country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Will any country leave NATO by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether any NATO member state will formally withdraw from the alliance or submit an official notice of denunciation by the market’s deadline. The event resolves to “Yes” only if a member country takes one of those formal steps under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty; a mere exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure is not enough. This makes the forecast a focused test of alliance stability, international security, and current market sentiment around NATO and world politics. The market is active from February 13, 2025 through the resolution deadline on December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. As of the latest data, the implied probability is 0%, suggesting traders currently see no meaningful expectation of a withdrawal, though prediction market odds can change quickly with new geopolitical developments or official government statements. Resolution will rely primarily on official information from NATO and the relevant government, with credible reporting also considered if needed.","GEOPOLITICS","World",[11,13,14,15],"NATO","Geopolitics","Politics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025-d6BB5x1Nv0DA.jpg",0,32.18,38234.900908,50686.78538,114519.699639,21623.9173484,true,false,"2025-02-13T23:08:41.618Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z","2025-02-13T22:27:42.744Z","2026-05-30T10:40:12.662Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"will any country leave nato by...?","will any country leave nato by...? prediction","will any country leave nato by...? odds","will any country leave nato by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:24:38.174Z","2026-05-30T10:43:05.947Z",[41,55,67],{"id":42,"title":43,"slug":44,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":45,"probability":49,"createdAt":50,"updatedAt":51,"resolutionDate":52,"description":53,"summary":53,"volume1wk":54,"featured":24},"34051","Netanyahu out by...?","netanyahu-out-before-2027",[11,14,46,47,15,48],"Middle East","Israel","Earn 4%",53.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.232Z","2026-05-30T10:34:01.136Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from\u002Fis removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" regardless of if\u002Fwhen he actually steps down.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",470688.30231599987,{"id":56,"title":57,"slug":58,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":59,"probability":61,"createdAt":62,"updatedAt":63,"resolutionDate":64,"description":65,"summary":65,"volume1wk":66,"featured":24},"107726","Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?","will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026",[11,60,14,15],"China",0.95,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.544Z","2026-05-30T10:37:57.200Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",407490.007161001,{"id":68,"title":69,"slug":70,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":71,"probability":17,"createdAt":79,"updatedAt":80,"resolutionDate":64,"description":81,"summary":81,"volume1wk":82,"featured":24},"72352","Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-kupiansk-by",[11,72,14,15,73,74,75,76,77,78],"Kupyansk","putin","Military Actions","Russia Capture","Ukraine Map","Ukraine","Russia","2026-05-30T10:42:53.083Z","2026-05-30T10:31:53.239Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nKupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Moskovka\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fh-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.\n\nOnce Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nKupiansk Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FKupiansk+location.jpeg\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.",166930.00940800007,1780676661745]