[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":79},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-any-country-join-the-board-of-peace-by-june-30-128":3},{"event":4,"related":43},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":42},"330209","will-any-country-join-the-board-of-peace-by-june-30-128","Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?","Donald Trump and the United States sent invitations to countries around the world, inviting them to join the US-led Board of Peace which will oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and elsewhere (see: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Fus-names-rubio-blair-kushner-gaza-board-under-trumps-plan-2026-01-17\u002F).\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any new country joins the Board of Peace between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.\n\n- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).\n\nOnly statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count. \n\nQualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market centered on whether the US-led Board of Peace will gain at least one additional country member before the deadline. The board, associated with Donald Trump and the United States, is intended to oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and potentially other disputes in the Middle East. Traders are forecasting the likelihood that a foreign government will make a definitive public announcement or provide official confirmation that it has formally joined the board, such as signing its charter or declaring membership in clear terms. The market does not count vague expressions of support or conditional intent, only unequivocal commitments within the June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET cutoff. Current market probability is around 5.9%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as unlikely at present. As a prediction market tied to Israel, Gaza, Trump, and broader Middle East politics, the event reflects market sentiment on diplomatic alignment, US-led peace efforts, and the prospects for international participation in the board before the resolution deadline.","GEOPOLITICS","Israel",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"Trump","Geopolitics","Middle East","Gaza","Politics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwhich-countries-will-join-the-board-of-peace-by-feb-28-sR1E4MEOX6iS.jpg",5.9,19476.956943999998,37308.470594,17939.70724,2138.282369,24518.961098199998,true,false,"2026-04-01T19:50:24.464Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2026-03-31T21:37:11.199Z","2026-06-16T10:02:13.777Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-any-country-join-the-board-of-peace-by-june-30-128?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"will any country join the board of peace by june 30?","will any country join the board of peace by june 30? prediction","will any country join the board of peace by june 30? odds","will any country join the board of peace by june 30? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:19:39.511Z","2026-06-16T10:08:13.295Z",0,[44,54,67],{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":48,"probability":42,"createdAt":50,"updatedAt":51,"resolutionDate":28,"description":52,"summary":52,"volume1wk":53,"featured":26},"57057","Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?","israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31",[11,14,49,15,16],"World","2026-05-30T10:42:46.009Z","2026-06-16T10:02:03.037Z","On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Fisrael-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09\u002F\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",1563959.2021769986,{"id":55,"title":56,"slug":57,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":58,"probability":42,"createdAt":63,"updatedAt":64,"resolutionDate":28,"description":65,"summary":65,"volume1wk":66,"featured":26},"139507","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?","will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30",[11,49,59,15,14,60,61,62],"Iran","shah","Reza Pahlavi","Iran Regime","2026-05-30T10:42:47.481Z","2026-06-16T10:01:34.730Z","If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",861628.423768,{"id":68,"title":69,"slug":70,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":71,"probability":73,"createdAt":74,"updatedAt":75,"resolutionDate":76,"description":77,"summary":77,"volume1wk":78,"featured":26},"72347","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026",[11,59,13,49,72,14,15,17,61,62],"Khamenei",9.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.165Z","2026-06-16T10:07:30.319Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. ",760380.653698,1781606255296]