[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":87},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-afd-win-an-absolute-majority-of-seats-in-sachsen-anhalt":3},{"event":4,"related":44},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":19,"probability":20,"volume24hr":21,"volume1wk":22,"liquidity":23,"openInterest":24,"trendScore":25,"active":26,"closed":27,"featured":27,"startDate":28,"endDate":29,"createdAtRemote":30,"updatedAtRemote":31,"affiliateUrl":32,"polymarketUrl":32,"searchKeywords":33,"syncedAt":41,"createdAt":42,"marketCount":43},"478687","will-afd-win-an-absolute-majority-of-seats-in-sachsen-anhalt","Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?","Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de\u002F).","Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? is a political prediction market on the 2026 Landtag election in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt, with voting scheduled for September 6, 2026. The forecast asks whether the Alternative for Germany (AfD) will secure more than half of the seats in the state parliament, which would give it an absolute majority on its own. If the election is not held, or if definitive results are still unavailable by January 31, 2027, the market resolves to No. The outcome is determined strictly by seat count, based on credible reporting and, if needed, the official results from the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt. Current market probability places the Yes outcome at about 41.5%, suggesting traders see a meaningful but not dominant chance of an outright AfD majority. As a German elections event prediction, this market is relevant for observers tracking market sentiment around regional politics, parliamentary control, and the broader direction of the AfD in eastern Germany.","POLITICS","Politics",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18],"Global Elections","Elections","German Elections","Germany","Saxony-Anhalt","Sachsen-Anhalt","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-afd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttemberg-parliamentary-elections-EH5fxjchr4It.png",41.5,534.3132770000001,10529.398912999999,34042.4602,47522.569024,10234.468352400001,true,false,"2026-05-12T23:53:27.173Z","2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z","2026-05-12T20:31:28.724Z","2026-05-30T10:31:52.714Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-afd-win-an-absolute-majority-of-seats-in-sachsen-anhalt?r=predstack",[34,35,36,37,38,39,40],"will afd win an absolute majority of seats in sachsen-anhalt?","will afd win an absolute majority of seats in sachsen-anhalt? prediction","will afd win an absolute majority of seats in sachsen-anhalt? odds","will afd win an absolute majority of seats in sachsen-anhalt? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:45:09.578Z","2026-05-30T10:43:25.729Z",0,[45,61,74],{"id":46,"title":47,"slug":48,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":49,"probability":55,"createdAt":56,"updatedAt":57,"resolutionDate":58,"description":59,"summary":59,"volume1wk":60,"featured":26},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[11,50,14,51,13,52,53,54],"US Election","World Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":62,"title":63,"slug":64,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":65,"probability":43,"createdAt":69,"updatedAt":70,"resolutionDate":71,"description":72,"summary":72,"volume1wk":73,"featured":26},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[11,66,67,68],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":75,"title":76,"slug":77,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":78,"probability":43,"createdAt":82,"updatedAt":83,"resolutionDate":84,"description":85,"summary":85,"volume1wk":86,"featured":26},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[11,79,68,80,81,67,66],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","Trump","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-05-30T10:39:46.810Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",2654417.6848280015,1780676584788]