[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":84},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-a-us-ally-get-a-nuke-before-2027":3},{"event":4,"related":44},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":19,"probability":20,"volume24hr":21,"volume1wk":22,"liquidity":23,"openInterest":24,"trendScore":25,"active":26,"closed":27,"featured":27,"startDate":28,"endDate":29,"createdAtRemote":30,"updatedAtRemote":31,"affiliateUrl":32,"polymarketUrl":32,"searchKeywords":33,"syncedAt":41,"createdAt":42,"marketCount":43},"79953","will-a-us-ally-get-a-nuke-before-2027","Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nIf a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for \"Yes\" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a \"US ally\" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.state.gov\u002Fmajor-non-nato-ally-status\u002F) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n","Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? is a politics prediction market asking whether any NATO member or Major Non-NATO Ally will be credibly confirmed to possess an operational nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026. The forecast focuses on full independent control of a nuclear weapon, not nuclear sharing arrangements, and excludes cases such as an Israeli admission that does not meet the market’s resolution rules. This makes the event a closely defined test of geopolitical escalation, alliance security, and nuclear proliferation risk.\n\nThe market matters because it tracks how traders assess the odds of a major change in global security conditions involving the United States, Europe, Ukraine, Israel, and wider foreign policy dynamics. Current market probability is about 9.9%, suggesting participants see the event as possible but unlikely. As a prediction market, it reflects market sentiment and the expected outcome based on available information rather than a guarantee. The event starts on November 13, 2025 and resolves by the end of 2026, making timing and credible reporting from international nuclear agencies, governments, or major global news sources central to any final decision.","POLITICS","World",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18],"Trump","Politics","Ukraine","Foreign Policy","Geopolitics","Israel","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-a-us-ally-get-nuclear-weapons-in-2025-h9hcCP-4MjRt.jpg",9.9,7984.089185,44797.932495,15332.97127,2430.090582,20498.018594999998,true,false,"2025-11-13T23:20:40.321Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-12T19:05:17.279Z","2026-05-30T10:40:12.877Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-a-us-ally-get-a-nuke-before-2027?r=predstack",[34,35,36,37,38,39,40],"will a us ally get a nuke before 2027?","will a us ally get a nuke before 2027? prediction","will a us ally get a nuke before 2027? odds","will a us ally get a nuke before 2027? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:22:44.083Z","2026-05-30T10:43:04.266Z",0,[45,55,66],{"id":46,"title":47,"slug":48,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":49,"probability":50,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":29,"description":53,"summary":53,"volume1wk":54,"featured":27},"73871","Who will Trump meet with in 2026?","who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2026",[11,13,14,17],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:57.714Z","2026-05-30T10:40:21.810Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",88121.139551,{"id":56,"title":57,"slug":58,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":59,"probability":43,"createdAt":61,"updatedAt":62,"resolutionDate":63,"description":64,"summary":64,"volume1wk":65,"featured":27},"41359","Israeli parliament dissolved by...?","israeli-parliament-dissolved-by-october-31",[11,18,14,60],"Middle East","2026-05-30T10:42:58.768Z","2026-05-30T10:32:58.869Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 3 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",76976.008345,{"id":67,"title":68,"slug":69,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":70,"probability":78,"createdAt":79,"updatedAt":80,"resolutionDate":81,"description":82,"summary":82,"volume1wk":83,"featured":27},"166435","Next Prime Minister of Sweden","next-prime-minister-of-sweden",[11,71,72,73,74,75,76,14,77],"Global Elections","Swedish","Elections","World Elections","Sweden","Rewards 20, 4.5, 50","Main Election",0.15,"2026-05-30T10:43:02.086Z","2026-05-30T10:30:30.567Z","2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z","Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",54010.386619,1780676604690]