[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":86},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-before-2027":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":40},"73213","will-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-before-2027","Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nAny referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? is a Canada-focused election prediction market tracking whether any provincial government will formally set a vote on secession by December 31, 2026. The forecasted outcome is straightforward: the market resolves “Yes” if a province officially schedules a referendum on leaving Canada, whether the vote is binding or non-binding, and “No” if no such referendum is set before the deadline. This makes the event relevant to Canadian politics, geopolitics, and broader questions about provincial autonomy and national unity.\n\nThe market uses credible reporting as its resolution source, and traders are currently assigning a 73.5% probability to the “Yes” outcome, indicating stronger market sentiment that such a referendum could be scheduled within the timeframe. With a start date of November 5, 2025 and an end date of December 31, 2026, the event prediction remains active over an extended period, allowing odds to shift as provincial politics and public debate evolve. As a prediction market, it offers a real-time view of expectations around a potentially significant Canadian political development.","ELECTIONS","Canada",[11,13,14,15],"Politics","World","Geopolitics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-in-2025-WCgHlWmtkYVe.jpg",73.5,2319.4063130000004,20227.57067600001,40864.5487,109367.384284,15400.884099300005,true,false,"2025-11-05T19:30:51.779Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-04T22:12:35.056Z","2026-05-30T10:31:57.259Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-before-2027?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"will a province schedule a referendum to leave canada before 2027?","will a province schedule a referendum to leave canada before 2027? prediction","will a province schedule a referendum to leave canada before 2027? odds","will a province schedule a referendum to leave canada before 2027? probability","election prediction market","election forecast","election odds","2026-06-05T13:33:23.978Z","2026-05-30T10:43:14.353Z",0,[42,60,75],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":46,"probability":54,"createdAt":55,"updatedAt":56,"resolutionDate":57,"description":58,"summary":58,"volume1wk":59,"featured":24},"330634","Toronto Mayoral Election Winner","toronto-mayoral-election-winner-545",[11,13,47,48,49,50,51,52,53],"Toronto","Elections","Global Elections","Mayoral Elections","World Elections","Rewards 20, 4.5, 50","Main Election",null,"2026-05-30T10:43:15.994Z","2026-05-30T10:33:54.822Z","2026-10-26T12:00:00.000Z","The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.",18653.274451999998,{"id":61,"title":62,"slug":63,"category":10,"subcategory":51,"tags":64,"probability":69,"createdAt":70,"updatedAt":71,"resolutionDate":72,"description":73,"summary":73,"volume1wk":74,"featured":23},"30829","Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028","democratic-presidential-nominee-2028",[51,49,48,13,65,66,67,68],"US Election","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",1.05,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.593Z","2026-05-30T10:32:02.146Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",14863770.623744,{"id":76,"title":77,"slug":78,"category":10,"subcategory":51,"tags":79,"probability":81,"createdAt":82,"updatedAt":83,"resolutionDate":72,"description":84,"summary":84,"volume1wk":85,"featured":23},"31552","Presidential Election Winner 2028","presidential-election-winner-2028",[51,49,65,48,13,66,80,68,53],"President",0.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.733Z","2026-05-30T10:38:06.128Z","The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.\n\nThis market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.",12762950.039931998,1780676608204]