[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":85},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-a-country-leave-brics-in-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":40},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":15,"probability":16,"volume24hr":17,"volume1wk":18,"liquidity":19,"openInterest":20,"trendScore":21,"active":22,"closed":23,"featured":23,"startDate":24,"endDate":25,"createdAtRemote":26,"updatedAtRemote":27,"affiliateUrl":28,"polymarketUrl":28,"searchKeywords":29,"syncedAt":37,"createdAt":38,"marketCount":39},"149904","will-a-country-leave-brics-in-2026","Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any member state formally withdraws from BRICS or provides an official notice of denunciation to BRICS between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and BRICS; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? is a political prediction market asking whether any BRICS member state will formally withdraw, or submit an official notice of denunciation, before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The event is resolved using official government statements and BRICS announcements, though credible reporting may also be considered if needed. In plain terms, traders are forecasting whether the bloc will lose a member during the market window. This matters because BRICS is a major geopolitical forum, and a withdrawal would signal meaningful strain within the group and could affect broader geopolitics and world affairs. As of the latest market data, the implied probability is about 15.5%, suggesting market sentiment leans toward no country exiting in 2026, but with a meaningful minority view that an exit remains possible. The forecast runs from the market’s creation through the end-of-year deadline, making official notices or public diplomatic moves especially important for event prediction and resolution.","POLITICS","Politics",[11,13,14],"Geopolitics","World","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-brics-add-a-new-member-by-december-31-IIzM3kouV-Ax.jpg",15.5,22.36,15143.753633,4555.1033,2376.564401,5465.3267499,true,false,"2026-01-07T22:12:57.681Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-01-07T21:59:27.926Z","2026-06-16T10:03:12.371Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-a-country-leave-brics-in-2026?r=predstack",[30,31,32,33,34,35,36],"will a country leave brics in 2026?","will a country leave brics in 2026? prediction","will a country leave brics in 2026? odds","will a country leave brics in 2026? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-16T10:29:30.794Z","2026-06-16T10:08:27.404Z",0,[41,53,71],{"id":42,"title":43,"slug":44,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":45,"probability":39,"createdAt":48,"updatedAt":49,"resolutionDate":50,"description":51,"summary":51,"volume1wk":52,"featured":22},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[11,13,46,47],"U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":54,"title":55,"slug":56,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":57,"probability":65,"createdAt":66,"updatedAt":67,"resolutionDate":68,"description":69,"summary":69,"volume1wk":70,"featured":22},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[11,58,59,60,61,62,63,64],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-06-16T10:03:36.054Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",4777429.576322999,{"id":72,"title":73,"slug":74,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":75,"probability":39,"createdAt":80,"updatedAt":81,"resolutionDate":82,"description":83,"summary":83,"volume1wk":84,"featured":22},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[11,76,47,77,78,46,13,79],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","Trump","Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-06-16T10:07:26.988Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",4565895.467737994,1781606256570]