[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":83},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-may-31":3},{"event":4,"related":40},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":15,"probability":16,"volume24hr":17,"volume1wk":18,"liquidity":19,"openInterest":20,"trendScore":21,"active":22,"closed":23,"featured":23,"startDate":24,"endDate":25,"createdAtRemote":26,"updatedAtRemote":27,"affiliateUrl":28,"polymarketUrl":28,"searchKeywords":29,"syncedAt":37,"createdAt":38,"marketCount":39},"410144","who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-may-31","Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He\u002FShe isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He\u002FShe isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31? is a political prediction market asking whether Donald Trump will make a public statement that insults, mocks, or attacks a listed individual before the market closes on May 31. The forecast is based on any written, verbal, or recorded public remark that clearly targets a person in a negative personal or professional way, such as an insulting nickname, derogatory language, or a direct attack that is reasonably identifiable from context. Policy disagreements without personal disparagement do not count. This event matters because it turns Trump’s public rhetoric into a measurable event prediction, giving traders a way to express market sentiment on how often he may target specific figures. As of the latest reading, the market implies about a 6.5% probability of a qualifying insult by the deadline. Resolution will rely on a consensus of credible reporting, making the end date and public record central to the outcome.","POLITICS","Politics",[11,13,14],"Culture","Trump","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwho-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-may-31-sAuR7oCIPSvP.jpg",6.5,5482.136836,26388.739057000006,74259.57343,38785.738039,25509.6048211,true,false,"2026-04-23T22:32:24.189Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-23T15:12:19.581Z","2026-05-30T10:37:13.878Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwho-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-may-31?r=predstack",[30,31,32,33,34,35,36],"who will trump publicly insult by may 31?","who will trump publicly insult by may 31? prediction","who will trump publicly insult by may 31? odds","who will trump publicly insult by may 31? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:29:05.591Z","2026-05-30T10:43:10.225Z",0,[41,59,71],{"id":42,"title":43,"slug":44,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":45,"probability":53,"createdAt":54,"updatedAt":55,"resolutionDate":56,"description":57,"summary":57,"volume1wk":58,"featured":22},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[11,46,47,48,49,50,51,52],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":60,"title":61,"slug":62,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":63,"probability":39,"createdAt":67,"updatedAt":68,"resolutionDate":25,"description":69,"summary":69,"volume1wk":70,"featured":22},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[11,64,65,66],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":72,"title":73,"slug":74,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":75,"probability":39,"createdAt":78,"updatedAt":79,"resolutionDate":80,"description":81,"summary":81,"volume1wk":82,"featured":22},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[11,76,66,77,14,65,64],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-05-30T10:39:46.810Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",2654417.6848280015,1780676603174]