[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":89},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election":3},{"event":4,"related":47},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":22,"probability":23,"volume24hr":24,"volume1wk":25,"liquidity":26,"openInterest":27,"trendScore":28,"active":29,"closed":30,"featured":30,"startDate":31,"endDate":32,"createdAtRemote":33,"updatedAtRemote":34,"affiliateUrl":35,"polymarketUrl":35,"searchKeywords":36,"syncedAt":44,"createdAt":45,"marketCount":46},"81557","who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? is a political prediction market tracking the outcome of Israel’s next parliamentary contest and the official leadership that follows. The market is focused on who will be formally appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel after the legislative elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, or after any earlier election if one is called. Interim or caretaker prime ministers do not count for resolution, and the event will settle to “Other” if no qualifying appointment is made by December 31, 2027.\n\nThis forecast matters because Israel’s leadership outcome has major implications for domestic politics, coalition building, and broader Middle East geopolitics. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome of the election process, using official government sources and credible reporting to assess the odds. The current market probability for the next Prime Minister is 33.5%, reflecting ongoing market sentiment rather than a certain result. As a result, this event combines election forecasting, political probability, and succession analysis in a single prediction market tied to one of the most closely watched political developments in Israel.","POLITICS","Politics",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21],"Middle East","Israel","Geopolitics","Elections","Global Elections","World","Trump-Netanyahu","Main Election","rewards 100, 4.5, 100","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwho-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-2026-election-lWDmU0z7U_Vj.png",33.5,283382.070337,1596027.5789649999,1126817.89795,339014.67684100004,845862.888448,true,false,"2025-11-15T00:35:25.541Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-14T18:50:42.285Z","2026-05-30T10:40:16.227Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwho-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election?r=predstack",[37,38,39,40,41,42,43],"who will be the next prime minister of israel after the next election?","who will be the next prime minister of israel after the next election? prediction","who will be the next prime minister of israel after the next election? odds","who will be the next prime minister of israel after the next election? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T10:34:41.942Z","2026-05-30T10:42:45.925Z",0,[48,64,76],{"id":49,"title":50,"slug":51,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":52,"probability":58,"createdAt":59,"updatedAt":60,"resolutionDate":61,"description":62,"summary":62,"volume1wk":63,"featured":29},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[11,53,16,54,17,55,56,57],"US Election","World Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":65,"title":66,"slug":67,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":68,"probability":46,"createdAt":71,"updatedAt":72,"resolutionDate":73,"description":74,"summary":74,"volume1wk":75,"featured":29},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[11,15,69,70],"U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":77,"title":78,"slug":79,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":80,"probability":46,"createdAt":84,"updatedAt":85,"resolutionDate":86,"description":87,"summary":87,"volume1wk":88,"featured":29},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[11,81,70,82,83,69,15],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","Trump","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-05-30T10:39:46.810Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",2654417.6848280015,1780676604654]