[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":85},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":40},"85704","who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027","Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Who will announce Presidential run before 2027? is a political prediction market focused on whether a listed individual will formally announce a campaign for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes if the person makes an official announcement through a statement, speech, social media post, or other credible source, even if no formal nomination filing follows. It resolves to No if no qualifying announcement occurs before the deadline.\n\nThis event matters because presidential run announcements can reshape the early field, influence election narratives, and shift market sentiment around the 2028 race. Traders are forecasting which public figures may enter the contest before the cutoff date, making the event a useful signal for political odds and event prediction. The current market probability is about 11.5%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as relatively unlikely, though not impossible.\n\nWith a start date of November 20, 2025 and an end date of December 31, 2026, the market provides a long window for new political developments, official statements, and credible reporting to affect the forecast.","POLITICS","Politics",[11,13,14,15],"Celebrities","President","Elections","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwho-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-VNNU3Ms1Z60A.jpg",11.5,3250.549517,9834.004505,761239.88818,126443.06958200004,156823.45374599998,true,false,"2025-11-20T00:00:47.357Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-19T22:50:55.494Z","2026-05-30T10:31:39.655Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwho-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"who will announce presidential run before 2027?","who will announce presidential run before 2027? prediction","who will announce presidential run before 2027? odds","who will announce presidential run before 2027? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:46:29.027Z","2026-05-30T10:43:26.866Z",0,[42,59,72],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":46,"probability":53,"createdAt":54,"updatedAt":55,"resolutionDate":56,"description":57,"summary":57,"volume1wk":58,"featured":23},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[11,47,15,48,49,50,51,52],"US Election","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":60,"title":61,"slug":62,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":63,"probability":40,"createdAt":67,"updatedAt":68,"resolutionDate":69,"description":70,"summary":70,"volume1wk":71,"featured":23},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[11,64,65,66],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":73,"title":74,"slug":75,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":76,"probability":40,"createdAt":80,"updatedAt":81,"resolutionDate":82,"description":83,"summary":83,"volume1wk":84,"featured":23},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[11,77,66,78,79,65,64],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","Trump","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-05-30T10:39:46.810Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",2654417.6848280015,1780676584512]