[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":83},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with-before-2027-921":3},{"event":4,"related":43},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":42},"73951","which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with-before-2027-921","Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market tracking whether new free trade agreements involving the United States are enacted into law by December 31, 2026. The forecast covers agreements approved through Senate ratification and presidential approval, or through a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed by the President, with resolution based on credible reporting. In plain terms, traders are pricing the odds that Trump will secure and finalize new trade deals with specified countries or entities before the deadline. This matters because trade negotiations can affect tariffs, market access, and the broader direction of U.S. trade policy amid ongoing trade war and geopolitics concerns. Current market probability is about 9%, suggesting sentiment is skeptical that a qualifying deal will be completed in time. The market opened on November 5, 2025 and runs through the end of 2026, making it a long-dated event prediction with attention on diplomatic progress, legislative approval, and any announced trade breakthroughs.","GEOPOLITICS","Geopolitics",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"Politics","Trump","World","Trade War","Tariffs","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwhich-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-new-trade-deals-with-in-2025-6zSB5DZvDr7T.jpg",9,34317.836665,35267.667785000005,157642.17547,41021.97896200001,59267.653762,true,false,"2025-11-05T22:15:00.659Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-05T18:55:26.932Z","2026-05-30T10:35:41.269Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwhich-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with-before-2027-921?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"which countries will trump make new trade deals with before 2027?","which countries will trump make new trade deals with before 2027? prediction","which countries will trump make new trade deals with before 2027? odds","which countries will trump make new trade deals with before 2027? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:25:25.173Z","2026-05-30T10:43:06.680Z",0,[44,58,72],{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":48,"probability":42,"createdAt":54,"updatedAt":55,"resolutionDate":28,"description":56,"summary":56,"volume1wk":57,"featured":25},"310530","Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?","iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by",[11,14,49,50,13,51,52,53],"Middle East","Iran Ceasefire","U.S. x Iran","Iran","Nuclear","2026-05-30T10:42:44.555Z","2026-05-30T10:32:05.315Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",4017181.6218990027,{"id":59,"title":60,"slug":61,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":62,"probability":42,"createdAt":67,"updatedAt":68,"resolutionDate":69,"description":70,"summary":70,"volume1wk":71,"featured":26},"386788","Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[11,63,50,64,52,65,66],"Lebanon","Israel","Israel x Iran","Hezbollah","2026-05-30T10:42:45.304Z","2026-05-30T10:36:14.427Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",2228964.1721680006,{"id":73,"title":74,"slug":75,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":76,"probability":78,"createdAt":79,"updatedAt":80,"resolutionDate":28,"description":81,"summary":81,"volume1wk":82,"featured":26},"73130","Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",[11,13,49,64,52,14,15,77],"Military Strikes",18.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.702Z","2026-05-30T10:32:16.867Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.",1710369.6938979982,1780676606433]