[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":81},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30":3},{"event":4,"related":43},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":42},"86318","which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30","Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?","This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n","\"Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?\" is a geopolitics prediction market asking traders to forecast which governments will formally recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. The outcome is based only on official government recognition; an announcement of intent will not count. If government sources are unclear, the market may also use a consensus of credible reporting. This makes the event a focused test of diplomatic developments involving Israel, the Middle East, and countries such as Syria and Yemen that are relevant to the broader regional context. The market is designed to capture event prediction and market sentiment around formal recognition, rather than broader political statements. Current market probability is shown at about 1.05%, suggesting traders see recognition by additional countries as a low-probability outcome, though odds can change as new diplomatic signals emerge. The forecast will resolve at the end of the listed window, making timing central to the event’s resolution and to how prediction market participants assess the expected outcome.","GEOPOLITICS","Israel",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"Geopolitics","Middle East","Syria","Yemen","Politics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwhich-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30-A3GnpL5vZoZL.jpg",1.05,5017.305886,25636.637882,128334.96648,52391.91768200001,35866.6376036,true,false,"2025-11-20T19:15:28.634Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-20T17:36:20.214Z","2026-05-30T10:40:22.880Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwhich-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"which countries will recognize israel by june 30?","which countries will recognize israel by june 30? prediction","which countries will recognize israel by june 30? odds","which countries will recognize israel by june 30? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:29:22.099Z","2026-05-30T10:43:10.494Z",0,[44,55,68],{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":48,"probability":42,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":28,"description":53,"summary":53,"volume1wk":54,"featured":26},"57057","Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?","israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31",[11,13,49,14,50],"World","Gaza","2026-05-30T10:42:46.009Z","2026-05-30T10:31:52.407Z","On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Fisrael-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09\u002F\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",1560920.3989269985,{"id":56,"title":57,"slug":58,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":59,"probability":42,"createdAt":64,"updatedAt":65,"resolutionDate":28,"description":66,"summary":66,"volume1wk":67,"featured":26},"139507","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?","will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30",[11,49,60,14,13,61,62,63],"Iran","shah","Reza Pahlavi","Iran Regime","2026-05-30T10:42:47.481Z","2026-05-30T10:31:40.133Z","If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",871637.6565629999,{"id":69,"title":70,"slug":71,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":72,"probability":75,"createdAt":76,"updatedAt":77,"resolutionDate":78,"description":79,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":26},"72347","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026",[11,60,73,49,74,13,14,17,62,63],"Trump","Khamenei",14.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.165Z","2026-05-30T10:36:11.217Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. ",640837.0614000001,1780676609305]