[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":89},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-which-companys-ai-will-first-hit-1550-on-chatbot-arena-in-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":46},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":21,"probability":22,"volume24hr":23,"volume1wk":24,"liquidity":25,"openInterest":26,"trendScore":27,"active":28,"closed":29,"featured":29,"startDate":30,"endDate":31,"createdAtRemote":32,"updatedAtRemote":33,"affiliateUrl":34,"polymarketUrl":34,"searchKeywords":35,"syncedAt":43,"createdAt":44,"marketCount":45},"206787","which-companys-ai-will-first-hit-1550-on-chatbot-arena-in-2026","Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?","This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nResults from the \"Text Arena\" section on the leaderboard\u002Ftext tab of https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F with the style control unchecked (https:\u002F\u002Farena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext\u002Foverall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to \"None in 2026\".\n\nIf the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.","Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? is a technology prediction market focused on which major AI lab will be the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550 or higher on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. The event is tied to the public leaderboard at lmarena.ai and resolves using the Text Arena results with style control unchecked. If no listed company reaches that score by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to “None in 2026”; if a non-listed company is first, it resolves to “Other.”\n\nThe forecast draws interest from traders tracking Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, DeepSeek, and other Big Tech AI developers, since the outcome reflects model performance, leaderboard momentum, and market sentiment around frontier LLM progress. With the current market probability at 1.6%, the odds suggest traders see this threshold as a low-likelihood but notable event prediction. The market starts in February 2026 and remains open through the end-of-year deadline, making it a clear AI benchmark watchlist item for 2026.","TECH","google",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20],"OpenAI","AI","DeepSeek","gpt","xAI","Tech","Big Tech","anthropic","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwhich-ai-will-be-the-first-to-hit-1500-on-chatbot-arena-qbZUykYXIPTG.png",1.6,5111.789298,13155.69988,40199.03518,11921.195472,14542.411649,true,false,"2026-02-13T21:49:38.929Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-02-12T19:47:06.488Z","2026-05-30T10:33:50.985Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwhich-companys-ai-will-first-hit-1550-on-chatbot-arena-in-2026?r=predstack",[36,37,38,39,40,41,42],"which company's ai will first hit 1550 on chatbot arena in 2026?","which company's ai will first hit 1550 on chatbot arena in 2026? prediction","which company's ai will first hit 1550 on chatbot arena in 2026? odds","which company's ai will first hit 1550 on chatbot arena in 2026? probability","technology prediction market","tech forecast","technology probability","2026-06-05T13:41:05.476Z","2026-05-30T10:43:21.671Z",0,[47,61,77],{"id":48,"title":49,"slug":50,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":51,"probability":55,"createdAt":56,"updatedAt":57,"resolutionDate":58,"description":59,"summary":59,"volume1wk":60,"featured":28},"57711","Largest Company end of June?","largest-company-end-of-june-712",[14,18,19,52,15,53,54],"Economy","Business","Finance",89,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.353Z","2026-05-30T10:36:33.619Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",2205699.1277590003,{"id":62,"title":63,"slug":64,"category":10,"subcategory":54,"tags":65,"probability":71,"createdAt":72,"updatedAt":73,"resolutionDate":74,"description":75,"summary":75,"volume1wk":76,"featured":28},"500775","Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?","will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31",[54,66,67,18,19,14,68,69,13,70],"Privates","llm","chatgpt","sam altman","OpenAI IPO",6.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:56.965Z","2026-05-30T10:34:16.260Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. \n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.",98053.93702400001,{"id":78,"title":79,"slug":80,"category":10,"subcategory":18,"tags":81,"probability":84,"createdAt":85,"updatedAt":86,"resolutionDate":58,"description":87,"summary":87,"volume1wk":88,"featured":29},"57705","Which company has best AI model end of June?","which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june",[18,19,82,83,13,14],"GPT-5","Grok",13.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.365Z","2026-05-30T10:34:07.757Z","This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",1313459.0318739992,1780676594958]