[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":79},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"117916","which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.\n","“Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?” is a technology prediction market focused on whether any listed company will top the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard by Arena score for at least some period before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to Yes if a company’s model reaches the highest Arena score on lmarena.ai, including cases where multiple models tie for first; otherwise it resolves to No. The event centers on major AI developers and competitors in the broader tech and business ecosystem, including names such as DeepSeek and Grok-related companies, and reflects ongoing competition in large language model performance.\n\nThis market matters because the Chatbot Arena leaderboard is a widely watched benchmark for frontier model quality, making it a useful signal for AI market sentiment and relative model leadership. As of the latest update, traders are pricing the event at about 10.5% probability, suggesting a low but non-zero chance that a company will briefly or persistently claim the top spot before the deadline. The event prediction will be determined by the leaderboard’s Arena Score section, with resolution tied to the official Chatbot Arena source.","TECH","Tech",[11,13,14,15,16],"AI","Business","DeepSeek","Grok","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwhich-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year--UQI9JDBhaSv.jpg",10.5,2804.91,118988.89591899999,34994.32618,93825.81580800003,44097.989011699996,true,false,"2025-12-22T22:37:52.126Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2025-12-22T20:38:55.534Z","2026-05-30T10:40:19.799Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwhich-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"which companies will have a #1 ai model by june 30?","which companies will have a #1 ai model by june 30? prediction","which companies will have a #1 ai model by june 30? odds","which companies will have a #1 ai model by june 30? probability","technology prediction market","tech forecast","technology probability","2026-06-05T13:13:22.002Z","2026-05-30T10:42:55.527Z",0,[43,56,68],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":51,"createdAt":52,"updatedAt":53,"resolutionDate":27,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":25},"57705","Which company has best AI model end of June?","which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june",[11,48,49,16,50,13],"Big Tech","GPT-5","OpenAI",13.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.365Z","2026-05-30T10:34:07.757Z","This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",1313459.0318739992,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":60,"probability":62,"createdAt":63,"updatedAt":64,"resolutionDate":65,"description":66,"summary":66,"volume1wk":67,"featured":25},"376503","Which company has the third best AI model end of May?","which-company-has-the-third-best-ai-model-end-of-may",[11,48,13,61],"Rewards 20, 4.5, 50",97.45,"2026-05-30T10:43:01.898Z","2026-05-30T10:31:30.911Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",54539.83879999998,{"id":69,"title":70,"slug":71,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":72,"probability":74,"createdAt":75,"updatedAt":76,"resolutionDate":65,"description":77,"summary":77,"volume1wk":78,"featured":25},"414034","Which company has the best Coding AI model end of May?","which-company-has-the-best-coding-ai-model-end-of-may",[11,73,61,13],"Coding",98.6,"2026-05-30T10:43:06.853Z","2026-05-30T10:38:10.036Z","This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https:\u002F\u002Farena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext\u002Fcoding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",34715.016422,1780676629850]