[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":84},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31":3},{"event":4,"related":40},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":15,"probability":16,"volume24hr":17,"volume1wk":18,"liquidity":19,"openInterest":20,"trendScore":21,"active":22,"closed":23,"featured":23,"startDate":24,"endDate":25,"createdAtRemote":26,"updatedAtRemote":27,"affiliateUrl":28,"polymarketUrl":28,"searchKeywords":29,"syncedAt":37,"createdAt":38,"marketCount":39},"474389","which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31","Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of [the specified city or settlement] () by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","\"Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?\" is a geopolitics prediction market that asks whether Russia will capture any territory of the specified city or settlement by December 31, 2026, based on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map. The event will resolve to Yes if the relevant area is shown as under Russian control, Russian advance, infiltration, or recent gains on the ISW Ukraine map and that shading persists through the next full daily update cycle. If Russia gains actual control through a negotiated settlement, that also qualifies, but a mere announcement of de jure control does not. The market uses ISW as the primary source, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting as backups if needed. This prediction market focuses on the expected outcome of Russia’s military movement and territorial control in Ukraine, making it relevant to traders tracking market sentiment on the war. As of the latest data, the market implies about a 25% probability of a Yes resolution. The forecast runs from its May 11, 2026 start date through the December 31, 2026 deadline.","GEOPOLITICS","Geopolitics",[11,13,14],"Ukraine Map","Ukraine","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwhich-cities-will-russia-enter-by-june-30-LnopY-FJVZSb.jpg",20.5,1593.868863,10332.233387,47374.12324,39390.30865300001,13371.4290956,true,false,"2026-05-11T20:14:40.432Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-05-11T16:14:05.332Z","2026-06-16T10:02:54.522Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwhich-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31?r=predstack",[30,31,32,33,34,35,36],"which cities will russia enter by december 31?","which cities will russia enter by december 31? prediction","which cities will russia enter by december 31? odds","which cities will russia enter by december 31? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:08:32.915Z","2026-05-30T10:43:12.088Z",0,[41,58,70],{"id":42,"title":43,"slug":44,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":45,"probability":39,"createdAt":54,"updatedAt":55,"resolutionDate":25,"description":56,"summary":56,"volume1wk":57,"featured":22},"310530","Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?","iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by",[11,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53],"Trump","Middle East","Iran Ceasefire","Politics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","Nuclear","Negotiation Topics","2026-05-30T10:42:44.555Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.231Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",1350422.5297449993,{"id":59,"title":60,"slug":61,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":62,"probability":64,"createdAt":65,"updatedAt":66,"resolutionDate":67,"description":68,"summary":68,"volume1wk":69,"featured":22},"599086","US-Iran deal text released by...?","us-iran-deal-text-released-byptptpt-20260615224044572",[11,63,50,51,49],"Peace Deal",90.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:14.774Z","2026-06-16T10:05:13.139Z","2026-07-01T03:59:00.000Z","On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.\n\nThe “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify. \n\nA qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement.\n\nA joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.\n",33166.259299,{"id":71,"title":72,"slug":73,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":74,"probability":39,"createdAt":79,"updatedAt":80,"resolutionDate":81,"description":82,"summary":82,"volume1wk":83,"featured":23},"386788","Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[11,75,48,76,51,77,78,63],"Lebanon","Israel","Israel x Iran","Hezbollah","2026-05-30T10:42:45.304Z","2026-06-16T10:01:41.812Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",3214871.9922169973,1781606313703]