[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":88},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-which-banks-will-fail-by-june-30":3},{"event":4,"related":40},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":15,"probability":16,"volume24hr":17,"volume1wk":18,"liquidity":19,"openInterest":20,"trendScore":21,"active":22,"closed":23,"featured":23,"startDate":24,"endDate":25,"createdAtRemote":26,"updatedAtRemote":27,"affiliateUrl":28,"polymarketUrl":28,"searchKeywords":29,"syncedAt":37,"createdAt":38,"marketCount":39},"133436","which-banks-will-fail-by-june-30","Which banks will fail by June 30?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:\n\n- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.\n- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.\n- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.\n- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.\n- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.\n\nIf there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","“Which banks will fail by June 30?” is a finance prediction market asking traders to forecast whether any listed bank will be deemed to have failed before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying regulatory, court-ordered, or government-led failure occurs, including insolvency declarations, license withdrawal, resolution, liquidation, forced asset transfers, or other actions that wipe out or subordinate equity and place the bank under official control. It can also resolve on certain formally acknowledged defaults that lead directly to resolution or transfer. The event matters because bank failure risk can affect broader sentiment in the economy and banking sector, especially when regulators or resolution authorities intervene. Current market probability is around 45%, suggesting traders see a meaningful but not dominant chance of a qualifying failure before the deadline. The market opened on December 31, 2025 and is scheduled to close on June 30, 2026, though it may remain open until September 30, 2026 if a potential failure needs confirmation from official sources or credible reporting. As a prediction market, it reflects live odds and evolving market sentiment rather than a guaranteed forecast.","FINANCE","Finance",[11,13,14],"Economy","Business","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwhich-banks-will-fail-by-june-30-rq5YDDkZgoMa.jpg",0.45,5291.63995,13065.811925,106816.79514,87854.83424400001,27928.922580500002,true,false,"2025-12-31T02:53:39.147Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2025-12-30T17:35:30.206Z","2026-06-16T10:02:13.033Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwhich-banks-will-fail-by-june-30?r=predstack",[30,31,32,33,34,35,36],"which banks will fail by june 30?","which banks will fail by june 30? prediction","which banks will fail by june 30? odds","which banks will fail by june 30? probability","finance prediction market","financial forecast","market odds","2026-06-16T10:31:07.882Z","2026-06-16T10:08:29.325Z",0,[41,57,77],{"id":42,"title":43,"slug":44,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":45,"probability":39,"createdAt":53,"updatedAt":54,"resolutionDate":55,"description":43,"summary":43,"volume1wk":56,"featured":22},"415443","What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?","what-price-will-wti-hit-in-may-2026",[11,46,47,48,49,50,51,52],"Monthly","Hit Price","Hide From New","Finance Updown","Pyth Finance","Commodities","Oil","2026-05-30T10:42:43.693Z","2026-05-30T10:38:59.671Z","2026-05-31T17:00:00.000Z",12887084.736748997,{"id":58,"title":59,"slug":60,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":61,"probability":71,"createdAt":72,"updatedAt":73,"resolutionDate":74,"description":75,"summary":75,"volume1wk":76,"featured":22},"500753","Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?","will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31",[11,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69,70],"Privates","llm","anthropic","Dario Amodei","Tech","Claude","Big Tech","AI","Anthropic IPO",9,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.493Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.241Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.",192762.68417000005,{"id":78,"title":79,"slug":80,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":81,"probability":82,"createdAt":83,"updatedAt":84,"resolutionDate":85,"description":86,"summary":86,"volume1wk":87,"featured":23},"522294","What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in June 2026?","what-price-will-wti-hit-in-june-2026",[11,46,47,48,49,50,51,52],0.15,"2026-05-30T10:43:08.617Z","2026-06-16T10:04:48.430Z","2026-06-30T17:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of June 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final \"High\" or \"Low\" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPrices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.\n\nIf the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe’s business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.\n\nThe active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). \n\nPer CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day).\n\nFor example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar.\n\nIf the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high\u002Flow price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.\n\nIn the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures \"High\" and \"Low\" prices available at https:\u002F\u002Fpythdata.app\u002Fexplore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the \"t=\" parameter.",1981724.6436299998,1781606241979]