[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":92},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-what-will-kevin-warsh-say-during-june-press-conference-20260608181155516":3},{"event":4,"related":47},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":22,"probability":23,"volume24hr":24,"volume1wk":25,"liquidity":26,"openInterest":27,"trendScore":28,"active":29,"closed":30,"featured":30,"startDate":31,"endDate":32,"createdAtRemote":33,"updatedAtRemote":34,"affiliateUrl":35,"polymarketUrl":35,"searchKeywords":36,"syncedAt":44,"createdAt":45,"marketCount":46},"573539","what-will-kevin-warsh-say-during-june-press-conference-20260608181155516","What will Kevin Warsh say during June Press Conference?","Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on June 17, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Warsh is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.\n\nPluralization\u002Fpossessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.\n\nInstances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for \"joy,\" however \"killjoy\" is a compounding of the words \"kill\" and \"joy\").\n\nIf this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe \u002F Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).\n\nIf no such statement by Warsh happens by June 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.","What will Kevin Warsh say during June Press Conference? is a political prediction market tied to Warsh’s scheduled FOMC introductory statement and press conference on June 17, 2026 at 2:30 PM ET. The market asks whether Warsh will say a specific listed term during the statement or the follow-up Q&A, with resolution based on the official video and transcripts. Any spoken use of the word counts, including plural or possessive forms and eligible compound-word uses, and even prerecorded clips or old interview footage if aired during the event.\n\nThis event matters because Federal Reserve communications can move market sentiment around monetary policy, and traders often use prediction markets to forecast wording, emphasis, and signal changes from Fed officials. The current market probability is 94.5%, indicating strong expectations that the term will be mentioned before the June 17, 2026 deadline. As a political forecast in the Fed category, the event focuses less on policy outcomes and more on exact language during a high-profile press conference.","POLITICS","Politics",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21],"Fed","Jerome","Jerome Powell","Fed Chair","Warsh","powell","Mentions","fomc","Trump","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwhat-will-kevin-warsh-say-during-june-press-conference-20260608181155516-YiJX4LD5EIYt.jpg",94.5,3835.039797,36461.251995,31170.2623,22410.790822000003,19089.947957,true,false,"2026-06-08T19:33:41.006Z","2026-06-18T03:59:00.000Z","2026-06-08T19:00:41.321Z","2026-06-16T10:04:27.870Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwhat-will-kevin-warsh-say-during-june-press-conference-20260608181155516?r=predstack",[37,38,39,40,41,42,43],"what will kevin warsh say during june press conference?","what will kevin warsh say during june press conference? prediction","what will kevin warsh say during june press conference? odds","what will kevin warsh say during june press conference? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-16T10:19:56.990Z","2026-06-16T10:08:13.638Z",0,[48,61,79],{"id":49,"title":50,"slug":51,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":52,"probability":46,"createdAt":56,"updatedAt":57,"resolutionDate":58,"description":59,"summary":59,"volume1wk":60,"featured":29},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[11,53,54,55],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":62,"title":63,"slug":64,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":65,"probability":73,"createdAt":74,"updatedAt":75,"resolutionDate":76,"description":77,"summary":77,"volume1wk":78,"featured":29},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[11,66,67,68,69,70,71,72],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-06-16T10:03:36.054Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",4777429.576322999,{"id":80,"title":81,"slug":82,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":83,"probability":46,"createdAt":87,"updatedAt":88,"resolutionDate":89,"description":90,"summary":90,"volume1wk":91,"featured":29},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[11,84,55,85,21,54,53,86],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-06-16T10:07:26.988Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",4565895.467737994,1781606322272]