[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":83},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-june-30":3},{"event":4,"related":46},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":21,"probability":22,"volume24hr":23,"volume1wk":24,"liquidity":25,"openInterest":26,"trendScore":27,"active":28,"closed":29,"featured":29,"startDate":30,"endDate":31,"createdAtRemote":32,"updatedAtRemote":33,"affiliateUrl":34,"polymarketUrl":34,"searchKeywords":35,"syncedAt":43,"createdAt":44,"marketCount":45},"509893","what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-june-30","What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nContinued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:\n\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.\n- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.\n\nAgreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.","What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market centered on whether the United States, under Donald Trump or another authorized representative, will definitively agree to Iran’s continued enrichment of uranium by the June 30, 2026 deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if there is an explicit public announcement or a formally established US-Iran deal that accepts continued uranium enrichment, even if the agreement includes limits, monitoring, or other conditions. Mere negotiations or expressions of openness do not count. This makes the forecast a focused test of diplomatic progress between the US and Iran, with implications for the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets, and broader regional security. Traders are currently assigning about a 33.5% probability to the expected outcome, indicating market sentiment leans against a definitive agreement but leaves meaningful room for an event prediction to resolve Yes before the end date. Because resolution depends on official statements or credible reporting of a formal deal, the market will likely move on any substantive US-Iran announcement before June 30.","GEOPOLITICS","Strait of Hormuz",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20],"Oil","Geopolitics","Iran","Politics","Iran Ceasefire","Uranium","Trump","U.S. x Iran","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwhat-will-the-us-agree-to-6H3WGF-B3geo.jpg",33.5,32301.413084999996,158047.53685199984,134099.2334,92487.447648,90384.81427809995,true,false,"2026-05-21T21:12:25.518Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2026-05-21T14:33:21.658Z","2026-05-30T10:39:14.020Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwhat-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-june-30?r=predstack",[36,37,38,39,40,41,42],"what iranian demands will trump agree to by june 30?","what iranian demands will trump agree to by june 30? prediction","what iranian demands will trump agree to by june 30? odds","what iranian demands will trump agree to by june 30? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:11:05.556Z","2026-05-30T10:42:53.453Z",0,[47,59,70],{"id":48,"title":49,"slug":50,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":51,"probability":54,"createdAt":55,"updatedAt":56,"resolutionDate":31,"description":57,"summary":57,"volume1wk":58,"featured":28},"372242","Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?","trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by",[11,14,19,17,16,15,20,52,53],"Middle East","Hormuz",15.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.199Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.245Z","On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nbcnews.com\u002Fworld\u002Firan\u002Flive-blog\u002Flive-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nQualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify). \n\nStatements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., \"Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz\") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.\n\nInformal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.\n\nWritten public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and\u002For its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nNote: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.",6602933.03823101,{"id":60,"title":61,"slug":62,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":63,"probability":65,"createdAt":66,"updatedAt":67,"resolutionDate":31,"description":68,"summary":68,"volume1wk":69,"featured":29},"514425","Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?","which-countries-will-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-june-30",[11,15,64,13,14,20],"Naval",17,"2026-05-30T10:43:20.541Z","2026-05-30T10:35:25.506Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"warship transit\" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.\n\nOfficial confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.\n\nQualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.\n\nConfirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",14548.879939,{"id":71,"title":72,"slug":73,"category":10,"subcategory":15,"tags":74,"probability":45,"createdAt":78,"updatedAt":79,"resolutionDate":80,"description":81,"summary":81,"volume1wk":82,"featured":28},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[15,19,75,17,76,77,20,14,16],"ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.539Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",55575856.145219125,1780676573055]