[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":86},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-von-der-leyen-out-as-european-commission-president-in-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"168384","von-der-leyen-out-as-european-commission-president-in-2026","Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of von der Leyen's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","\"Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?\" is a prediction market in the Europe elections category that asks whether Ursula von der Leyen will cease to serve as President of the European Commission at any point before December 31, 2026. The forecast resolves to Yes if she resigns, is removed, or otherwise leaves the role during the market period; it also resolves immediately if an official resignation or removal is announced before the deadline, even if the effective date comes later. If no such change occurs by the end date, the market resolves to No.\n\nThis event matters because the European Commission presidency is one of the most important leadership roles in the European Union, with direct implications for EU policy, geopolitics, and the direction of European governance. Traders are currently assigning about a 10% probability to a Yes outcome, suggesting market sentiment still expects her to remain in office through the forecast window. The market opens on January 16, 2026 and runs until December 31, 2026, making official EU or European Commission information the key resolution source.","ELECTIONS","Europe",[11,13,14,15,16],"European Union","Geopolitics","Politics","eu","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fvon-der-leyen-out-as-european-commission-president-in-2026-FYvm7cj05VSV.jpg",10,5.494504,11290.175032,12783.8728,5104.747772,5946.574321599999,true,false,"2026-01-16T17:41:10.671Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-01-16T16:10:25.462Z","2026-06-16T10:02:06.997Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fvon-der-leyen-out-as-european-commission-president-in-2026?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"von der leyen out as european commission president in 2026?","von der leyen out as european commission president in 2026? prediction","von der leyen out as european commission president in 2026? odds","von der leyen out as european commission president in 2026? probability","election prediction market","election forecast","election odds","2026-06-16T10:33:04.345Z","2026-06-16T10:08:31.716Z",0,[43,60,75],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":15,"tags":47,"probability":54,"createdAt":55,"updatedAt":56,"resolutionDate":57,"description":58,"summary":58,"volume1wk":59,"featured":24},"106520","Peru Presidential Election Winner","peru-presidential-election-winner",[15,48,49,50,51,52,53],"Global Elections","World Elections","Elections","Peru","Peru Election","Main Election",0.15,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.740Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.642Z","2026-04-12T00:00:00.000Z","General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.onpe.gob.pe\u002Felecciones\u002F) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https:\u002F\u002Fportal.jne.gob.pe\u002Fportal\u002F) ",16525619.599477056,{"id":61,"title":62,"slug":63,"category":10,"subcategory":49,"tags":64,"probability":69,"createdAt":70,"updatedAt":71,"resolutionDate":72,"description":73,"summary":73,"volume1wk":74,"featured":24},"30829","Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028","democratic-presidential-nominee-2028",[49,48,50,15,65,66,67,68],"US Election","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",1.05,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.593Z","2026-06-16T10:06:50.972Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9084772.468148999,{"id":76,"title":77,"slug":78,"category":10,"subcategory":49,"tags":79,"probability":81,"createdAt":82,"updatedAt":83,"resolutionDate":72,"description":84,"summary":84,"volume1wk":85,"featured":24},"31552","Presidential Election Winner 2028","presidential-election-winner-2028",[49,48,65,50,15,66,80,68,53],"President",0.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.733Z","2026-06-16T10:05:49.318Z","The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.\n\nThis market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.",6422552.3238429995,1781606235697]