[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":81},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-december-31":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":19},"37568","us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-december-31","U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between August 14, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.\n\nAn extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.\n\nAgreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.\n\nThe agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve \"Yes\"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and\u002For the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the United States and the Russian Federation will reach an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation between August 14, 2025 and December 31, 2025. The forecast covers a publicly announced deal that both sides acknowledge, such as a treaty, framework, memorandum, or an extension, amendment, or replacement of New START. Exploratory talks or statements of intent without a finalized agreement do not qualify.\n\nThis event matters because any new U.S.-Russia nuclear accord would have implications for strategic stability, verification mechanisms, warhead and delivery-system limits, and broader foreign policy relations, including the Trump-Putin and Ukraine context reflected in the market’s tags. Traders in this prediction market are weighing the odds of a concrete diplomatic breakthrough rather than loose negotiations.\n\nCurrent market probability is 0%, suggesting no confirmed agreement is priced in at the moment. The market remains active through the end-of-year resolution window, with official U.S. or Russian announcements, or overwhelming credible reporting, serving as the likely source for event prediction and final resolution.","GEOPOLITICS","Trump-Putin",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"Foreign Policy","Ukraine","Trump Presidency","Politics","Trump","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fus-x-russia-nuclear-deal-in-2025-CSpSAD1Tn25O.jpg",0,10.3045,60482.923157000005,7155.93548,7266.627465,19581.216293100002,true,false,"2025-08-14T23:27:41.966Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2025-08-14T22:45:30.799Z","2026-06-16T10:02:10.605Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fus-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-december-31?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"u.s. x russia nuclear deal by...?","u.s. x russia nuclear deal by...? prediction","u.s. x russia nuclear deal by...? odds","u.s. x russia nuclear deal by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:08:07.478Z","2026-05-30T10:43:00.255Z",[43,61,72],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":47,"tags":48,"probability":19,"createdAt":56,"updatedAt":57,"resolutionDate":58,"description":59,"summary":59,"volume1wk":60,"featured":25},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by","Iran",[47,17,49,50,51,52,53,54,16,55],"ceasefire","Iran Ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","U.S. x Iran","Geopolitics","Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-06-16T10:07:37.026Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",80346197.77405979,{"id":62,"title":63,"slug":64,"category":10,"subcategory":47,"tags":65,"probability":66,"createdAt":67,"updatedAt":68,"resolutionDate":69,"description":70,"summary":70,"volume1wk":71,"featured":25},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[47,16,50,54],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z",null,"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",25312735.30568604,{"id":73,"title":74,"slug":75,"category":10,"subcategory":16,"tags":76,"probability":19,"createdAt":77,"updatedAt":78,"resolutionDate":69,"description":79,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":25},"517606","US announces new Iran agreement\u002Fceasefire extension by...?","us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by",[16,54,50,47,53,55],"2026-05-30T10:42:44.017Z","2026-06-16T10:06:05.405Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.\n\nA qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:\n \n1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated\u002Ftime-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.\n\n2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.\n\nStatements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify.\n\nThe following would qualify:\n- President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.”\n- An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.”\n- President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.”\n- An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify.\n\nThe following would not qualify:\n- Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement.\n- Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached\n- Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement.\n\n\nAn overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. ",16205133.21684103,1781606275221]