[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":82},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-us-x-cuba-military-clash-in-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":40},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":15,"probability":16,"volume24hr":17,"volume1wk":18,"liquidity":19,"openInterest":20,"trendScore":21,"active":22,"closed":23,"featured":23,"startDate":24,"endDate":25,"createdAtRemote":26,"updatedAtRemote":27,"affiliateUrl":28,"polymarketUrl":28,"searchKeywords":29,"syncedAt":37,"createdAt":38,"marketCount":39},"230885","us-x-cuba-military-clash-in-2026","US x Cuba military clash in 2026?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","US x Cuba military clash in 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States and Cuba will have a direct military encounter before December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if there is an exchange of force between US and Cuban military forces, such as gunfire, missile strikes, artillery fire, or another form of direct military engagement; non-violent incidents do not qualify. The US Coast Guard counts as part of the US military, and the Cuban Border Guard counts as part of the Cuban military, which helps define the scope of the forecast.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks geopolitical risk in the Caribbean and broader US-Cuba relations, with traders pricing in the odds of an actual clash rather than routine tension. As of the latest data, the market-implied probability is about 50.5%, suggesting a roughly even split in market sentiment. The prediction market opened on February 26, 2026 and runs through the end of the year, with resolution based on a consensus of credible reporting. For event prediction and geopolitical forecast watchers, this listing reflects uncertainty around a high-impact but narrowly defined military outcome.","GEOPOLITICS","Trump",[11,13,14],"Geopolitics","Cuba","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fus-x-cuba-military-clash-by-pGbCseVhLfoN.jpg",50.5,611.6712200000001,11252.113144,42342.9888,33576.214404,12150.067313200001,true,false,"2026-02-26T00:36:03.518Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-02-25T21:56:44.790Z","2026-05-30T10:37:00.999Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fus-x-cuba-military-clash-in-2026?r=predstack",[30,31,32,33,34,35,36],"us x cuba military clash in 2026?","us x cuba military clash in 2026? prediction","us x cuba military clash in 2026? odds","us x cuba military clash in 2026? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:43:52.133Z","2026-05-30T10:43:24.421Z",0,[41,55,68],{"id":42,"title":43,"slug":44,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":45,"probability":50,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":25,"description":53,"summary":53,"volume1wk":54,"featured":23},"329654","US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?","us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by",[11,46,47,13,48,49],"Iran","U.S. x Iran","Iran Ceasefire","Politics",0.3,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.415Z","2026-05-30T10:30:55.379Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.\n\nQualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.\n\nA widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",5096916.237786994,{"id":56,"title":57,"slug":58,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":59,"probability":62,"createdAt":63,"updatedAt":64,"resolutionDate":65,"description":66,"summary":66,"volume1wk":67,"featured":23},"140725","Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?","cilia-flores-released-from-custody-by",[11,13,49,60,61],"Venezuela","maduro",44,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.693Z","2026-05-30T10:31:50.686Z","2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cilia Flores is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Cilia Flores is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Cilia Flores is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Cilia Flores to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". \n\nTemporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",527246.269833,{"id":69,"title":70,"slug":71,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":72,"probability":76,"createdAt":77,"updatedAt":78,"resolutionDate":79,"description":80,"summary":80,"volume1wk":81,"featured":23},"206793"," Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?","iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30",[11,13,49,73,74,75,46,48],"Nuclear","Middle East","World",26.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:51.905Z","2026-05-30T10:33:25.593Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. \n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ",222019.73939699994,1780676597249]