[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":89},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-us-x-cuba-diplomatic-meeting-by-763":3},{"event":4,"related":43},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":42},"511096","us-x-cuba-diplomatic-meeting-by-763","US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Cuba between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Cuba relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Cuba, and a consensus of credible reporting.","US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...? is a politics prediction market asking whether an in-person diplomatic meeting will take place between official representatives of the United States and Cuba before the listed deadline of 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if the meeting is deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation over US-Cuba relations and is publicly acknowledged by either government or confirmed by a consensus of credible media. Indirect meetings through authorized mediators can count, but remote calls, chance encounters, and informal conversations do not.\n\nThis event matters because US-Cuba relations remain geopolitically sensitive, and even a single official meeting can signal a shift in diplomatic engagement. Current market probability is about 72.55%, indicating that traders currently assign a relatively high chance of an expected outcome in favor of a meeting before the deadline. As a political forecast, the market reflects sentiment around Cuba, the United States, and broader geopolitics, including attention to figures and themes tied to Trump, Castro, and Diaz-Canel. The event prediction will be resolved using official government information and credible reporting.","POLITICS","Cuba",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"Politics","Trump","Geopolitics","Castro","Diaz-Canel","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fus-x-cuba-diplomatic-meeting-by-Ipo7RGdT6e5j.jpg",72.55,54463.23638899981,68566.0497199998,39234.1179,36886.20906,55648.25669049984,true,false,"2026-05-22T17:18:08.489Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2026-05-21T21:40:06.936Z","2026-05-30T10:39:56.988Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fus-x-cuba-diplomatic-meeting-by-763?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"us x cuba diplomatic meeting by...?","us x cuba diplomatic meeting by...? prediction","us x cuba diplomatic meeting by...? odds","us x cuba diplomatic meeting by...? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:17:53.473Z","2026-05-30T10:42:59.674Z",0,[44,62,74],{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":48,"probability":56,"createdAt":57,"updatedAt":58,"resolutionDate":59,"description":60,"summary":60,"volume1wk":61,"featured":25},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[13,49,50,51,52,53,54,55],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":63,"title":64,"slug":65,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":66,"probability":42,"createdAt":69,"updatedAt":70,"resolutionDate":71,"description":72,"summary":72,"volume1wk":73,"featured":25},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[13,15,67,68],"U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":75,"title":76,"slug":77,"category":10,"subcategory":50,"tags":78,"probability":83,"createdAt":84,"updatedAt":85,"resolutionDate":86,"description":87,"summary":87,"volume1wk":88,"featured":25},"57096","California Governor Election Winner","california-governor-election-2026",[50,49,13,79,80,81,82],"Governor midterms","California Midterm","rewards 100, 4.5, 100","California Governor",0.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.509Z","2026-05-30T10:32:16.807Z","2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nIf the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.",4083953.7799110003,1780676604760]