[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":86},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-us-takes-panama-canal-before-2027":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"80885","us-takes-panama-canal-before-2027","US takes Panama Canal before 2027?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.\n\nAn official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.","US takes Panama Canal before 2027? is a political prediction market asking whether the Panama Canal will come under U.S. control by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to “Yes” if the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal through a diplomatic agreement, military action, executive order, signed legislation, or other official action recognized by the governments of the United States and Panama. An official announcement that the canal will come under U.S. control also qualifies, even if the transfer has not yet been completed. \n\nThis event matters because the Panama Canal is a strategically important global shipping route, so any change in control would carry major geopolitical and foreign policy implications. Traders are effectively forecasting the expected outcome of U.S.-Panama relations and the likelihood of an official transfer or sovereignty change before the deadline. As of the latest update, the market probability is about 12.5%, indicating relatively low but nonzero odds. The market’s resolution will depend on official government information or credible reporting confirming U.S. control.","POLITICS","Politics",[11,13,14,15,16],"Trump","World","Geopolitics","Foreign Policy","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Ftrump-takes-panama-canal-in-2025-BPX6sMDc9ygK.jpg",12.5,397.236362,10619.291187,23728.1566,45787.818958,8130.0368571,true,false,"2025-11-13T21:46:45.800Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-13T21:19:58.399Z","2026-06-16T10:02:23.797Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fus-takes-panama-canal-before-2027?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"us takes panama canal before 2027?","us takes panama canal before 2027? prediction","us takes panama canal before 2027? odds","us takes panama canal before 2027? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-16T10:33:48.894Z","2026-06-16T10:08:32.563Z",0,[43,55,73],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":41,"createdAt":50,"updatedAt":51,"resolutionDate":52,"description":53,"summary":53,"volume1wk":54,"featured":24},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[11,15,48,49],"U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":56,"title":57,"slug":58,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":59,"probability":67,"createdAt":68,"updatedAt":69,"resolutionDate":70,"description":71,"summary":71,"volume1wk":72,"featured":24},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[11,60,61,62,63,64,65,66],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-06-16T10:03:36.054Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",4777429.576322999,{"id":74,"title":75,"slug":76,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":77,"probability":41,"createdAt":81,"updatedAt":82,"resolutionDate":83,"description":84,"summary":84,"volume1wk":85,"featured":24},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[11,78,49,79,13,48,15,80],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-06-16T10:07:26.988Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",4565895.467737994,1781606231159]