[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":82},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-us-strike-on-cuba-by":3},{"event":4,"related":39},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":15,"probability":16,"volume24hr":17,"volume1wk":18,"liquidity":19,"openInterest":20,"trendScore":21,"active":22,"closed":23,"featured":23,"startDate":24,"endDate":25,"createdAtRemote":26,"updatedAtRemote":27,"affiliateUrl":28,"polymarketUrl":28,"searchKeywords":29,"syncedAt":37,"createdAt":38,"marketCount":16},"143669","us-strike-on-cuba-by","US military action against Cuba by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date\u002Ftime of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.","US military action against Cuba by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Cuban territory will be announced or credibly reported by the listed deadline. The forecast resolves to Yes only if a qualifying strike physically impacts the terrestrial territory of Cuba, including rivers, lakes, or ports, and excludes intercepted weapons, naval shelling, artillery, ground incursions, and cyberattacks. The market runs from January 4, 2026 through December 31, 2026 ET, with credible reporting as the primary resolution source. This event matters because it sits at the intersection of US-Cuba tensions, regional security, and broader Caribbean geopolitics, with possible relevance to Venezuela-related developments given the market tags. Current market probability is 0%, indicating traders assign no meaningful chance of a qualifying strike at present, though prediction market odds can change quickly as market sentiment shifts. As a geopolitical forecast, the listing captures whether any US military or intelligence operatives are reported to have conducted a strike on Cuban soil before the deadline.","GEOPOLITICS","Geopolitics",[11,13,14],"Venezuela","Cuba","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fus-strike-on-cuba-by-EstR5MqlPUOe.jpg",0,51339.51815,671521.4616340002,76110.0306,308232.227427,242348.20368520007,true,false,"2026-01-04T20:11:34.924Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-01-04T20:05:37.988Z","2026-05-30T10:36:12.019Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fus-strike-on-cuba-by?r=predstack",[30,31,32,33,34,35,36],"us military action against cuba by...?","us military action against cuba by...? prediction","us military action against cuba by...? odds","us military action against cuba by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:05:21.014Z","2026-05-30T10:42:48.004Z",[40,56,70],{"id":41,"title":42,"slug":43,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":44,"probability":16,"createdAt":52,"updatedAt":53,"resolutionDate":25,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":22},"310530","Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?","iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by",[11,45,46,47,48,49,50,51],"Trump","Middle East","Iran Ceasefire","Politics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","Nuclear","2026-05-30T10:42:44.555Z","2026-05-30T10:32:05.315Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",4017181.6218990027,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":60,"probability":16,"createdAt":65,"updatedAt":66,"resolutionDate":67,"description":68,"summary":68,"volume1wk":69,"featured":23},"386788","Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[11,61,47,62,50,63,64],"Lebanon","Israel","Israel x Iran","Hezbollah","2026-05-30T10:42:45.304Z","2026-05-30T10:36:14.427Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",2228964.1721680006,{"id":71,"title":72,"slug":73,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":74,"probability":77,"createdAt":78,"updatedAt":79,"resolutionDate":25,"description":80,"summary":80,"volume1wk":81,"featured":23},"73130","Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",[11,48,46,62,50,45,75,76],"World","Military Strikes",18.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.702Z","2026-05-30T10:32:16.867Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.",1710369.6938979982,1780676632673]