[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":85},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":40},"143633","us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31","US strike on Colombia by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date\u002Ftime of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.","US strike on Colombia by...? is a political prediction market asking whether a United States-initiated drone, missile, or air strike will be announced or credibly reported on Colombian soil by January 31. The forecast covers a narrow definition of qualifying action: the strike must physically impact land territory in Colombia, including rivers, lakes, or ports, and must be carried out by U.S. military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives. Intercepted missiles or drones, as well as artillery, ground incursions, naval shelling, and cyberattacks, do not count toward a Yes resolution.\n\nThis event matters because it tests market sentiment around U.S.-Colombia tensions, broader geopolitics, and the likelihood of direct U.S. military action in the region. The prediction market currently implies about an 18.5% probability of a qualifying strike, suggesting traders see the outcome as possible but not the base case. Resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting, and the market will remain open until two days after the resolution time unless the date can no longer be confirmed.","POLITICS","Venezuela",[11,13,14,15],"Trump","Politics","Geopolitics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fus-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31-P4KCpXnvCj4O.jpg",18.5,82.52,49983.09493899999,21371.4854,41106.90246500001,19310.485561699996,true,false,"2026-01-04T19:58:13.929Z","2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-01-04T19:44:01.813Z","2026-05-30T10:30:44.684Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fus-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"us strike on colombia by...?","us strike on colombia by...? prediction","us strike on colombia by...? odds","us strike on colombia by...? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:21:27.800Z","2026-05-30T10:43:03.073Z",0,[42,55,73],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":46,"probability":49,"createdAt":50,"updatedAt":51,"resolutionDate":52,"description":53,"summary":53,"volume1wk":54,"featured":24},"140846","US forces enter Venezuela again by...?","us-forces-in-venezuela-again-by",[11,13,14,47,15,48],"Trump Presidency","World",19.4,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.766Z","2026-05-30T10:31:50.847Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nMilitary special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. \n\nUS military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.\n\nMilitary contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",371353.836364,{"id":56,"title":57,"slug":58,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":59,"probability":67,"createdAt":68,"updatedAt":69,"resolutionDate":70,"description":71,"summary":71,"volume1wk":72,"featured":23},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[14,60,61,62,63,64,65,66],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":74,"title":75,"slug":76,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":77,"probability":40,"createdAt":80,"updatedAt":81,"resolutionDate":82,"description":83,"summary":83,"volume1wk":84,"featured":23},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[14,15,78,79],"U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,1780676650004]