[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":84},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-us-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-crimea-before-2027":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"73129","us-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-crimea-before-2027","U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? ","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDonald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. \n\nStatement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. \n","U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the U.S. government will formally recognize Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026. The event is relevant because any such recognition would represent a major shift in U.S. foreign policy and could affect broader market sentiment around the Russia-Ukraine conflict and international territorial disputes. The market resolves to “Yes” only if the U.S. government makes a qualifying formal recognition; statements of intent or planned recognition do not count. Traders are currently assigning the event a probability of about 14.5%, suggesting the expected outcome remains a “No” unless policy changes materially before the deadline. The resolution source is the U.S. Government, though credible reporting may be used if needed. As a geopolitical forecast, this event centers on official action rather than speculation, making the timing through the end of 2026 the key deadline for the prediction market.","GEOPOLITICS","World",[11,13,14,15,16],"Trump","Geopolitics","crimea","Russia","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-the-us-recognize-russian-sovereignty-over-crimea-in-2025-mbDmeJtC0LkG.png",14.5,2518.69,22188.573438,9674.956,12512.069696,9850.9082314,true,false,"2025-11-05T17:57:04.073Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-04T19:49:34.359Z","2026-06-16T10:02:00.447Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fus-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-crimea-before-2027?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"u.s. recognizes russian sovereignty over crimea before 2027? ","u.s. recognizes russian sovereignty over crimea before 2027?  prediction","u.s. recognizes russian sovereignty over crimea before 2027?  odds","u.s. recognizes russian sovereignty over crimea before 2027?  probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:24:08.405Z","2026-06-16T10:08:20.606Z",0,[43,60,71],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":41,"createdAt":55,"updatedAt":56,"resolutionDate":57,"description":58,"summary":58,"volume1wk":59,"featured":25},"72352","Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-kupiansk-by",[11,48,14,49,50,51,52,53,54,16],"Kupyansk","Politics","putin","Military Actions","Russia Capture","Ukraine Map","Ukraine","2026-05-30T10:42:53.083Z","2026-06-16T10:03:16.608Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nKupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Moskovka\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fh-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.\n\nOnce Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nKupiansk Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FKupiansk+location.jpeg\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.",844316.1563289999,{"id":61,"title":62,"slug":63,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":64,"probability":66,"createdAt":67,"updatedAt":68,"resolutionDate":57,"description":69,"summary":69,"volume1wk":70,"featured":25},"107726","Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?","will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026",[11,65,14,49],"China",0.35,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.544Z","2026-06-16T10:05:12.488Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",680097.4484820002,{"id":72,"title":73,"slug":74,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":75,"probability":79,"createdAt":80,"updatedAt":81,"resolutionDate":27,"description":82,"summary":82,"volume1wk":83,"featured":25},"34051","Netanyahu out by...?","netanyahu-out-before-2027",[11,14,76,77,49,78],"Middle East","Israel","Earn 4%",64.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.232Z","2026-06-16T10:06:16.880Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from\u002Fis removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" regardless of if\u002Fwhen he actually steps down.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",563059.4055219998,1781606238998]