[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":88},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-us-recession-by-end-of-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":40},"48802","us-recession-by-end-of-2026","US recession by end of 2026?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:\n\n1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). \n\n2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nNote that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to \"Yes\". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to \"Yes\" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.\n\nThe resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bea.gov\u002Fdata\u002Fgdp\u002Fgross-domestic-product","US recession by end of 2026? is an economy prediction market tracking whether the United States will enter a recession before the end of 2026. The event resolves to “Yes” if either the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports two consecutive quarters of negative seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026, or if the NBER publicly announces that a recession occurred in the U.S. by the time the BEA releases its advance estimate for Q4 2026. In plain terms, traders are forecasting the odds that weak growth or an official NBER recession call will confirm a downturn. This matters because U.S. recession signals influence market sentiment across business, macro, and economic policy categories. The prediction market opened on 2025-09-29 and is scheduled to remain active until 2027-01-31, giving participants time to react to BEA GDP data and any NBER updates. Current market probability is about 19.5%, suggesting traders currently see recession as possible but not the base-case expected outcome.","ECONOMY","Economic Policy",[11,13,14,15],"Business","Economy","Macro Graph","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fus-recession-in-2025-01ZjnLjvO4a3.jpg",19.5,7136.730032,27378.91629400001,23392.6174,281507.025963,16460.563384200002,true,false,"2025-09-29T22:29:04.240Z","2027-01-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-09-23T15:06:15.910Z","2026-05-30T10:34:36.931Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fus-recession-by-end-of-2026?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"us recession by end of 2026?","us recession by end of 2026? prediction","us recession by end of 2026? odds","us recession by end of 2026? probability","economy prediction market","economic forecast","economic probability","2026-06-05T13:28:33.591Z","2026-05-30T10:43:09.699Z",0,[42,56,75],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":46,"tags":47,"probability":50,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":53,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":24},"385557","Largest Company end of May?","largest-company-end-of-may-167","Tech",[46,14,48,49,13],"Finance","Big Tech",99.95,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.200Z","2026-05-30T10:37:43.438Z","2026-05-31T06:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",2345554.2487270003,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":60,"tags":61,"probability":69,"createdAt":70,"updatedAt":71,"resolutionDate":72,"description":73,"summary":73,"volume1wk":74,"featured":24},"524097","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15","transit",[60,62,63,14,64,65,66,67,68],"Iran","Oil","Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","ships","Strait of Hormuz","Hormuz",7.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.055Z","2026-05-30T10:31:45.641Z","2026-06-15T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",1537804.481213998,{"id":76,"title":77,"slug":78,"category":10,"subcategory":67,"tags":79,"probability":82,"createdAt":83,"updatedAt":84,"resolutionDate":85,"description":86,"summary":86,"volume1wk":87,"featured":24},"455867","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31",[67,14,80,81,65,66,62,63,64],"Iran Ceasefire","Politics",56,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.752Z","2026-05-30T10:36:40.524Z","2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",1175859.2980450026,1780676586274]