[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":79},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-us-nuclear-test-by":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":19},"73921","us-nuclear-test-by","U.S. nuclear test by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.\n\nAccidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as \"dirty bombs\"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nTests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 \"Vela Incident\" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.","U.S. nuclear test by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States will conduct a nuclear test by the listed deadline on March 31, 2026 (ET). The forecasted outcome resolves to Yes only if the US carries out an intentional non-combat detonation that produces a nuclear chain reaction, including a fission or fusion test. Accidents, dirty bombs, and actions by third parties do not count, and the market can also resolve based on a broad consensus of credible reporting if a test is not officially claimed. This event matters because any US nuclear test would have major implications for geopolitics, arms control, Russia-US tensions, and wider market sentiment around Ukraine and global security. As a prediction market, it reflects traders’ expectations about the odds of a test occurring before the deadline. The current market probability is 0%, indicating no active pricing for a US nuclear test at this time, though that can change as new information or headlines emerge.","GEOPOLITICS","Ukraine",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"Geopolitics","Politics","Trump","putin","Russia","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fus-nuclear-test-by-scRoV5iyhLvy.jpg",0,18320.707742999995,28796.07321,11401.817825,11255.426964899998,true,false,"2025-11-05T18:16:47.935Z","2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-05T18:04:20.226Z","2026-05-30T10:39:17.367Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fus-nuclear-test-by?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"u.s. nuclear test by...?","u.s. nuclear test by...? prediction","u.s. nuclear test by...? odds","u.s. nuclear test by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:35:31.039Z","2026-05-30T10:43:16.350Z",[42,56,68],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":46,"probability":50,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":53,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":25},"73056","Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?","ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",[11,47,14,13,48,49],"Foreign Policy","World","Ukraine Peace Deal",30.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.017Z","2026-05-30T10:32:52.939Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes”  if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire\u002Farmistice, framework\u002F“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities\u002Festablishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace\u002Fnormalization plus principles, steps, and\u002For a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nOnly Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.\n\nLocalized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade\u002Fexport arrangements, border\u002FDMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector\u002Ffront\u002Fmunicipality—will not qualify.\n\nThe document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. \n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. \n",485869.726181,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":60,"probability":19,"createdAt":63,"updatedAt":64,"resolutionDate":65,"description":66,"summary":66,"volume1wk":67,"featured":25},"25036","Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?","will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by",[11,14,48,13,61,62],"Russia Capture","Ukraine Map","2026-05-30T10:42:50.012Z","2026-05-30T10:39:19.297Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z","This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.",351746.365096,{"id":69,"title":70,"slug":71,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":72,"probability":19,"createdAt":74,"updatedAt":75,"resolutionDate":76,"description":77,"summary":77,"volume1wk":78,"featured":25},"131611","Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-stepnohirsk-by",[11,62,17,16,14,73,61,13],"Military Actions","2026-05-30T10:42:52.686Z","2026-05-30T10:40:09.859Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStepnohirsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Prymorske\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FCwF1b64Qo49PvUZw5\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.",177734.237888,1780676606405]