[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":85},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-us-military-draft-authorized-in-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":44},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":19,"probability":20,"volume24hr":21,"volume1wk":22,"liquidity":23,"openInterest":24,"trendScore":25,"active":26,"closed":27,"featured":27,"startDate":28,"endDate":29,"createdAtRemote":30,"updatedAtRemote":31,"affiliateUrl":32,"polymarketUrl":32,"searchKeywords":33,"syncedAt":41,"createdAt":42,"marketCount":43},"263304","us-military-draft-authorized-in-2026","US military draft authorized in 2026?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nLegislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction\u002Fconscription into the armed forces will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","US military draft authorized in 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market on whether the United States will enact legislation authorizing conscription or otherwise activate the Selective Service System to induct personnel into the Armed Forces by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if both houses of Congress pass such legislation and the president signs it, or if another official legal mechanism establishes a military draft. Measures that merely change registration rules or administrative procedures do not count. This makes the event a focused forecast of a major national security and politics outcome, rather than a broader debate over military administration. The current market probability is about 8%, suggesting traders see a low but non-zero chance of a draft being authorized before the deadline. Market sentiment will likely be shaped by developments in U.S. politics, defense policy, and any escalation in geopolitical tensions, including U.S. and Iran-related headlines referenced in the tags. The start date is March 13, 2026, and the event runs through the end of the year, giving traders a clear timeframe for event prediction and odds updates.","GEOPOLITICS","Politics",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18],"Trump","Iran","U.S. x Iran","Geopolitics","conscript","selective service","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fus-military-draft-authorized-in-2026-7yQOpe6REYWJ.jpg",10,1464.633594,18015.653456999997,35170.0851,62520.014121,13171.029854099997,true,false,"2026-03-13T17:27:26.397Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-03-12T15:18:53.939Z","2026-06-16T10:01:52.992Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fus-military-draft-authorized-in-2026?r=predstack",[34,35,36,37,38,39,40],"us military draft authorized in 2026?","us military draft authorized in 2026? prediction","us military draft authorized in 2026? odds","us military draft authorized in 2026? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:08:24.251Z","2026-05-30T10:43:02.367Z",0,[45,57,73],{"id":46,"title":47,"slug":48,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":49,"probability":43,"createdAt":52,"updatedAt":53,"resolutionDate":54,"description":55,"summary":55,"volume1wk":56,"featured":26},"517606","US announces new Iran agreement\u002Fceasefire extension by...?","us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by",[11,16,50,14,15,51],"Iran Ceasefire","Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:42:44.017Z","2026-06-16T10:06:05.405Z",null,"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.\n\nA qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:\n \n1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated\u002Ftime-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.\n\n2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.\n\nStatements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify.\n\nThe following would qualify:\n- President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.”\n- An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.”\n- President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.”\n- An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify.\n\nThe following would not qualify:\n- Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement.\n- Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached\n- Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement.\n\n\nAn overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. ",16205133.21684103,{"id":58,"title":59,"slug":60,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":61,"probability":43,"createdAt":68,"updatedAt":69,"resolutionDate":70,"description":71,"summary":71,"volume1wk":72,"featured":27},"57088","Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?","israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by-october-31",[11,62,16,63,64,65,13,66,67],"Gaza","Israel","Middle East","World","Trump Presidency","Trump-Netanyahu","2026-05-30T10:42:49.105Z","2026-06-16T10:02:27.344Z","2025-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nFor purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.  Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.\n\nAn extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.",485017.42469100014,{"id":74,"title":75,"slug":76,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":77,"probability":79,"createdAt":80,"updatedAt":81,"resolutionDate":82,"description":83,"summary":83,"volume1wk":84,"featured":27},"105695","Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?","will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-venezuela-in-2025",[11,78,13,16],"Venezuela",0.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.969Z","2026-06-16T10:01:35.510Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nTo qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.\n\nThe resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.",79998.21618,1781809671973]