[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":87},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027":3},{"event":4,"related":45},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":20,"probability":21,"volume24hr":22,"volume1wk":23,"liquidity":24,"openInterest":25,"trendScore":26,"active":27,"closed":28,"featured":28,"startDate":29,"endDate":30,"createdAtRemote":31,"updatedAtRemote":32,"affiliateUrl":33,"polymarketUrl":33,"searchKeywords":34,"syncedAt":42,"createdAt":43,"marketCount":44},"73106","us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027","US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and\u002For nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and\u002For the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? is a political prediction market asking whether the United States and Iran will reach a publicly announced mutual agreement on Iranian nuclear research and\u002For nuclear weapon development by December 31, 2026. The forecast resolves to Yes if an official deal is announced before the deadline, even if it includes other parties such as in a multilateral agreement, and it will count as No otherwise. This makes the event relevant to foreign policy, geopolitics, the Middle East, and broader Israel-Iran security dynamics. The market is live from November 5, 2025 through the end-of-2026 resolution date, giving traders a clear timeframe to price in shifting diplomatic signals, negotiations, and regional developments. Current market probability sits at about 77.5%, indicating that traders broadly expect some form of agreement before 2027, though the outcome remains uncertain. Resolution depends primarily on an official announcement from the U.S. or Iran, with overwhelming credible reporting also qualifying. As a prediction market, it reflects market sentiment on the likelihood of a nuclear deal rather than a policy endorsement or guarantee.","POLITICS","Israel",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19],"Politics","Foreign Policy","World","Iran","Middle East","Geopolitics","Nuclear","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fus-x-iran-nuclear-deal-in-2025-3rpCC4Kl23Lc.jpg",77.5,28681.660891,230446.56788500014,108021.1102,226986.73969,105079.02285100005,true,false,"2025-11-05T16:51:03.959Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-04T19:04:29.208Z","2026-05-30T10:36:08.973Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fus-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027?r=predstack",[35,36,37,38,39,40,41],"us-iran nuclear deal before 2027?","us-iran nuclear deal before 2027? prediction","us-iran nuclear deal before 2027? odds","us-iran nuclear deal before 2027? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:09:18.545Z","2026-05-30T10:42:51.722Z",0,[46,58,76],{"id":47,"title":48,"slug":49,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":50,"probability":52,"createdAt":53,"updatedAt":54,"resolutionDate":55,"description":56,"summary":56,"volume1wk":57,"featured":28},"330194","Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?","will-a-new-country-join-the-abraham-accords-by-june-30",[11,13,51,17],"Gaza",16.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:23.248Z","2026-05-30T10:31:47.264Z","2026-06-30T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.\n\nCountries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",11972.422768999997,{"id":59,"title":60,"slug":61,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":62,"probability":70,"createdAt":71,"updatedAt":72,"resolutionDate":73,"description":74,"summary":74,"volume1wk":75,"featured":27},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[13,63,64,65,66,67,68,69],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":77,"title":78,"slug":79,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":80,"probability":44,"createdAt":82,"updatedAt":83,"resolutionDate":84,"description":85,"summary":85,"volume1wk":86,"featured":27},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[13,18,81,16],"U.S. x Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,1780676602220]