[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":81},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-june-30":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"431776","us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-june-30","U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.\n\nAnnouncements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.  ","U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market tied to whether the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if a full evacuation is officially announced or otherwise confirmed within the timeframe; a partial evacuation, where some staff remain, does not qualify. Credible reporting or official U.S. government statements will be used as the resolution source.\n\nThis event matters because embassy evacuations are a significant signal of deteriorating security conditions in the Middle East, particularly in the context of Lebanon, Hezbollah, and broader Israel-related regional risk. Traders in this prediction market are effectively forecasting whether conditions around the U.S. diplomatic presence in Beirut become severe enough to require a complete withdrawal.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 7%, suggesting low but non-zero odds of the expected outcome. The event opened on May 26, 2026 and runs until the June 30 deadline, making market sentiment sensitive to official announcements, credible news reports, and any escalation affecting U.S. diplomatic operations in Lebanon.","GEOPOLITICS","Israel",[11,13,14,15,16],"Geopolitics","Middle East","Hezbollah","Lebanon","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fus-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-march-31-zBCy3tDgJP_7.jpg",7,49388.933325,50284.26673,16210.2162,752.38673,43021.7899215,true,false,"2026-05-26T17:13:52.197Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-29T17:49:57.485Z","2026-05-30T10:40:11.728Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fus-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-june-30?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"u.s. evacuates beirut embassy by june 30?","u.s. evacuates beirut embassy by june 30? prediction","u.s. evacuates beirut embassy by june 30? odds","u.s. evacuates beirut embassy by june 30? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:21:25.381Z","2026-05-30T10:43:03.027Z",0,[43,54,67],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":41,"createdAt":50,"updatedAt":51,"resolutionDate":27,"description":52,"summary":52,"volume1wk":53,"featured":25},"57057","Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?","israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31",[11,13,48,14,49],"World","Gaza","2026-05-30T10:42:46.009Z","2026-05-30T10:31:52.407Z","On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Fisrael-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09\u002F\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",1560920.3989269985,{"id":55,"title":56,"slug":57,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":58,"probability":41,"createdAt":63,"updatedAt":64,"resolutionDate":27,"description":65,"summary":65,"volume1wk":66,"featured":25},"139507","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?","will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30",[11,48,59,14,13,60,61,62],"Iran","shah","Reza Pahlavi","Iran Regime","2026-05-30T10:42:47.481Z","2026-05-30T10:31:40.133Z","If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",871637.6565629999,{"id":68,"title":69,"slug":70,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":71,"probability":75,"createdAt":76,"updatedAt":77,"resolutionDate":78,"description":79,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":25},"72347","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026",[11,59,72,48,73,13,14,74,61,62],"Trump","Khamenei","Politics",14.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.165Z","2026-05-30T10:36:11.217Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. ",640837.0614000001,1780676609366]