[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":79},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-us-and-iran-sign-an-agreement-byptptpt-20260611221049850":3},{"event":4,"related":44},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":19,"probability":20,"volume24hr":21,"volume1wk":22,"liquidity":23,"openInterest":24,"trendScore":25,"active":26,"closed":27,"featured":27,"startDate":28,"endDate":29,"createdAtRemote":30,"updatedAtRemote":31,"affiliateUrl":32,"polymarketUrl":32,"searchKeywords":33,"syncedAt":41,"createdAt":42,"marketCount":43},"585172","us-and-iran-sign-an-agreement-byptptpt-20260611221049850","US and Iran sign an agreement by...?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran.\n\nBoth parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","“US and Iran sign an agreement by...?” is a political prediction market focused on whether the United States will sign any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed deadline of 11:59 PM ET on July 31, 2026. The market resolves “Yes” only if an authorized representative of the U.S. and an authorized representative of Iran sign the same agreement, or sign separate documents that clearly accept the same underlying deal. Both physical and officially issued electronic signatures qualify. This event matters because any formal U.S.-Iran agreement would be a significant development in geopolitics, diplomacy, and broader Iran policy, with potential implications for regional stability and peace deal expectations. Current market probability is 100%, indicating traders are pricing in an extremely strong expectation that the forecasted outcome will occur, though prediction market odds can change as new information emerges. Resolution will rely primarily on official government information, with credible reporting as a secondary source if needed. As a political forecast, the market reflects active trader sentiment around treaty prospects, U.S. x Iran relations, and the likelihood of an official agreement before the end date.","POLITICS","Iran",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18],"Treaty","U.S. x Iran","Trump","Politics","Geopolitics","Peace Deal","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fus-and-iran-sign-an-agreement-byptptpt-20260611221049850-VjN0bc7tgGXk.jpg",100,5931942.410345007,6455040.2205400085,1500577.43488,3319065.067063,5202598.758310506,true,false,"2026-06-11T22:27:05.141Z","2026-07-31T23:59:00.000Z","2026-06-11T22:12:17.340Z","2026-06-16T10:02:55.796Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fus-and-iran-sign-an-agreement-byptptpt-20260611221049850?r=predstack",[34,35,36,37,38,39,40],"us and iran sign an agreement by...?","us and iran sign an agreement by...? prediction","us and iran sign an agreement by...? odds","us and iran sign an agreement by...? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-16T10:09:15.278Z","2026-06-16T10:07:51.502Z",0,[45,58,70],{"id":46,"title":47,"slug":48,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":49,"probability":43,"createdAt":53,"updatedAt":54,"resolutionDate":55,"description":56,"summary":56,"volume1wk":57,"featured":27},"449163","Israel closes its airspace by...?","israel-closes-its-airspace-by",[11,50,16,17,51,52],"Israel","Israel x Iran","Rewards 50, 4.5, 20","2026-05-30T10:42:46.145Z","2026-06-16T10:03:45.239Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",2854468.0396250016,{"id":59,"title":60,"slug":61,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":62,"probability":43,"createdAt":65,"updatedAt":66,"resolutionDate":67,"description":68,"summary":68,"volume1wk":69,"featured":27},"435151","JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?","jd-vance-diplomatic-meeting-with-iran-by-876",[11,63,15,14,16,17,64],"Vance","Iran Ceasefire","2026-05-30T10:43:07.582Z","2026-06-16T10:02:01.182Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nTo qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",55512.79554100001,{"id":71,"title":72,"slug":73,"category":10,"subcategory":16,"tags":74,"probability":43,"createdAt":75,"updatedAt":76,"resolutionDate":55,"description":77,"summary":77,"volume1wk":78,"featured":26},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[16,17,14,11],"2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,1781606256486]