[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":78},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027":3},{"event":4,"related":43},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":42},"73056","ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027","Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?","This market will resolve to “Yes”  if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire\u002Farmistice, framework\u002F“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities\u002Festablishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace\u002Fnormalization plus principles, steps, and\u002For a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nOnly Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.\n\nLocalized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade\u002Fexport arrangements, border\u002FDMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector\u002Ffront\u002Fmunicipality—will not qualify.\n\nThe document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. \n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. \n","Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Ukraine will sign a qualifying written peace agreement, ceasefire, or formal roadmap with the Russian Federation by December 31, 2026. The market definition is specific: the document must include both countries as parties and either end hostilities or commit both sides to a defined process toward ending the war. Temporary or limited arrangements, such as localized ceasefires, humanitarian pauses, or prisoner-exchange deals, do not count. Only Ukraine’s signature is required for resolution, and the primary source will be consensus credible reporting. With the market currently implying about a 30.5% probability, traders are pricing in a meaningful but still limited chance of an event prediction outcome that would mark a major shift in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The start date is November 5, 2025, and the end date is December 31, 2026, making timing central to this forecast.","GEOPOLITICS","Ukraine",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"Foreign Policy","Politics","Geopolitics","World","Ukraine Peace Deal","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-in-2025-WeLU-mVDz9Ox.png",30.5,99451.78557,485869.726181,61668.0352,207965.1116,207820.4176793,true,false,"2025-11-05T18:06:00.699Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-04T17:48:49.985Z","2026-05-30T10:32:52.939Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"ukraine signs peace deal with russia before 2027?","ukraine signs peace deal with russia before 2027? prediction","ukraine signs peace deal with russia before 2027? odds","ukraine signs peace deal with russia before 2027? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:06:27.837Z","2026-05-30T10:42:49.017Z",0,[44,56,69],{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":48,"probability":42,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":53,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":26},"25036","Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?","will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by",[11,14,16,15,49,50],"Russia Capture","Ukraine Map","2026-05-30T10:42:50.012Z","2026-05-30T10:39:19.297Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z","This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.",351746.365096,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":60,"probability":42,"createdAt":64,"updatedAt":65,"resolutionDate":66,"description":67,"summary":67,"volume1wk":68,"featured":26},"131611","Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-stepnohirsk-by",[11,50,61,62,14,63,49,15],"Russia","putin","Military Actions","2026-05-30T10:42:52.686Z","2026-05-30T10:40:09.859Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStepnohirsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Prymorske\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FCwF1b64Qo49PvUZw5\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.",177734.237888,{"id":70,"title":71,"slug":72,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":73,"probability":42,"createdAt":74,"updatedAt":75,"resolutionDate":66,"description":76,"summary":76,"volume1wk":77,"featured":26},"73058","Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-vovchansk-by",[11,15,50,14,62,61,63,49],"2026-05-30T10:42:54.917Z","2026-05-30T10:33:01.091Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Vovchansk by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nVovchansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the territory of municipality is shaded light grey, and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Vovchanski Khutory\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures Vovchansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nVovchansk Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FVovchansk.png \nLocation on Google Maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FpEumzu6kdCPQ2sYt7\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n",133988.66033999997,1780676632986]