[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":88},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-ukraine-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukrainian-territory-in-2025":3},{"event":4,"related":47},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":23,"probability":24,"volume24hr":25,"volume1wk":26,"liquidity":27,"openInterest":28,"trendScore":29,"active":30,"closed":31,"featured":31,"startDate":32,"endDate":33,"createdAtRemote":34,"updatedAtRemote":35,"affiliateUrl":36,"polymarketUrl":36,"searchKeywords":37,"syncedAt":45,"createdAt":46,"marketCount":24},"17858","ukraine-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukrainian-territory-in-2025","Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. \n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.\n\nAn official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.\n\nThe April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and\u002For the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.\n","Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Ukraine will formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2025. The market resolves “Yes” if Ukraine and Russia publicly announce a mutual agreement, or if Ukraine makes an official unilateral pledge that meets the market’s criteria. A deal reached as part of a broader peace process would also count, as long as it includes formal recognition of sovereignty rather than merely acknowledging administrative control. \n\nThis event matters because it would mark a major shift in the Russia-Ukraine war and in the broader foreign policy debate involving Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the Trump presidency. As a prediction market, it reflects trader expectations about diplomatic negotiations, ceasefire talks, and the odds of a formal territorial settlement. Current market probability is not shown here, but the event has active liquidity and open interest, indicating ongoing market sentiment around the forecast. The relevant timeframe for resolution runs through the end of 2025, with official announcements or strong credible reporting serving as the primary resolution sources.","GEOPOLITICS","World",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22],"Trump Presidency","putin","Trump","Politics","Geopolitics","Foreign Policy","Ukraine","zelensky","Trump-Putin","Trump-Zelenskyy","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fukraine-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukrainian-territory-in-2025-aArQODeHnr5E.jpg",0,377.46,25215.724430999995,27002.57836,66529.305394,13153.963001299999,true,false,"2025-02-06T23:19:09.390Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z","2025-02-06T22:01:47.648Z","2026-06-16T10:06:03.756Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fukraine-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukrainian-territory-in-2025?r=predstack",[38,39,40,41,42,43,44],"ukraine recognizes russian sovereignty over its territory by...?","ukraine recognizes russian sovereignty over its territory by...? prediction","ukraine recognizes russian sovereignty over its territory by...? odds","ukraine recognizes russian sovereignty over its territory by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:08:18.667Z","2026-05-30T10:43:12.592Z",[48,63,74],{"id":49,"title":50,"slug":51,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":52,"probability":24,"createdAt":58,"updatedAt":59,"resolutionDate":60,"description":61,"summary":61,"volume1wk":62,"featured":31},"72352","Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-kupiansk-by",[11,53,17,16,14,54,55,56,19,57],"Kupyansk","Military Actions","Russia Capture","Ukraine Map","Russia","2026-05-30T10:42:53.083Z","2026-06-16T10:03:16.608Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nKupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Moskovka\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fh-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.\n\nOnce Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nKupiansk Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FKupiansk+location.jpeg\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.",844316.1563289999,{"id":64,"title":65,"slug":66,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":67,"probability":69,"createdAt":70,"updatedAt":71,"resolutionDate":60,"description":72,"summary":72,"volume1wk":73,"featured":31},"107726","Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?","will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026",[11,68,17,16],"China",0.35,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.544Z","2026-06-16T10:05:12.488Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",680097.4484820002,{"id":75,"title":76,"slug":77,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":78,"probability":82,"createdAt":83,"updatedAt":84,"resolutionDate":85,"description":86,"summary":86,"volume1wk":87,"featured":31},"34051","Netanyahu out by...?","netanyahu-out-before-2027",[11,17,79,80,16,81],"Middle East","Israel","Earn 4%",64.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.232Z","2026-06-16T10:06:16.880Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from\u002Fis removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" regardless of if\u002Fwhen he actually steps down.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",563059.4055219998,1781606275182]