[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":84},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-turnout-in-texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff":3},{"event":4,"related":45},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":20,"probability":21,"volume24hr":22,"volume1wk":23,"liquidity":24,"openInterest":25,"trendScore":26,"active":27,"closed":28,"featured":28,"startDate":29,"endDate":30,"createdAtRemote":31,"updatedAtRemote":32,"affiliateUrl":33,"polymarketUrl":33,"searchKeywords":34,"syncedAt":42,"createdAt":43,"marketCount":44},"246152","turnout-in-texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff","Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff","The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.  \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.sos.state.tx.us\u002Findex.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff is a political prediction market focused on the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff election. The market asks traders to forecast how many canvass votes are reported in the runoff, rather than who wins the race. It is tied to the Texas Senate contest and references key Republican figures and primary dynamics in Texas, including Paxton and Cornyn, making it relevant to broader election and turnout analysis.\n\nThe runoff was scheduled for May 26, 2026, and the market is set to resolve using official statewide results from the State of Texas, such as data published by the Texas Secretary of State. If the final vote total lands exactly between two brackets, the higher range bracket will be used. If results are still unavailable by November 30, 2026, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 5%, indicating low expected odds for the lower-probability outcome being priced. As an event prediction, this listing reflects market sentiment around turnout levels in a Texas Senate Republican primary runoff and how participation may shape the final canvass count.","POLITICS","Texas Senate",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19],"Politics","Paxton","Elections","Cornyn","Primaries","US Election","rewards 100, 4.5, 100","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Ftexas-flag-map-market-a5dc3bc9de.png",0.05,1043.9500000000003,13080.791656999998,84981.12302,20029.327546,21442.437101099997,true,false,"2026-03-04T20:53:35.187Z","2026-05-26T00:00:00.000Z","2026-03-04T17:41:05.393Z","2026-05-30T10:31:50.826Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fturnout-in-texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff?r=predstack",[35,36,37,38,39,40,41],"turnout in texas senate republican primary runoff","turnout in texas senate republican primary runoff prediction","turnout in texas senate republican primary runoff odds","turnout in texas senate republican primary runoff probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:41:13.619Z","2026-05-30T10:43:21.810Z",0,[46,56,71],{"id":47,"title":48,"slug":49,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":50,"probability":51,"createdAt":52,"updatedAt":53,"resolutionDate":30,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":28},"514577","Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory (Larger Brackets)","texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-margin-of-victory-larger-brackets",[11,18,16,17,13,14,15],1.85,"2026-05-30T10:42:56.288Z","2026-05-30T10:38:09.611Z","The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https:\u002F\u002Felections.sos.state.tx.us\u002Findex.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.",107148.693267,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":60,"probability":65,"createdAt":66,"updatedAt":67,"resolutionDate":68,"description":69,"summary":69,"volume1wk":70,"featured":27},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[13,18,15,61,62,63,17,64],"World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":72,"title":73,"slug":74,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":75,"probability":44,"createdAt":79,"updatedAt":80,"resolutionDate":81,"description":82,"summary":82,"volume1wk":83,"featured":27},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[13,76,77,78],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,1780676585180]