[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":82},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-trump-orders-federal-review-for-ai-model-releases-by-may-31":3},{"event":4,"related":45},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":20,"probability":21,"volume24hr":22,"volume1wk":23,"liquidity":24,"openInterest":25,"trendScore":26,"active":27,"closed":28,"featured":28,"startDate":29,"endDate":30,"createdAtRemote":31,"updatedAtRemote":32,"affiliateUrl":33,"polymarketUrl":33,"searchKeywords":34,"syncedAt":42,"createdAt":43,"marketCount":44},"449384","trump-orders-federal-review-for-ai-model-releases-by-may-31","Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by...?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates, authorizes, or directs a federal government review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government.\n\nLegislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process.\n\nNon-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by...? is a technology prediction market focused on whether Donald Trump will sign legislation or take executive action that creates a federal review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the deadline. The forecast is narrowly defined: a qualifying action must establish an official U.S. government process to review or approve model releases, not just a committee, non-binding statement, or internal government procurement rule. The market resolves by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date, with official federal information as the primary source and credible reporting as a fallback. Current market probability is about 2.65%, suggesting traders assign low odds to this event occurring. That market sentiment reflects the challenge of moving from broad AI policy debate to a concrete federal approval or review mechanism. The outcome matters for AI policy, Big Tech, and companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic because a federal review framework could affect how new models are released in the U.S. This event prediction sits at the intersection of politics, technology, and regulation, making it a closely watched AI forecast for prediction market traders.","TECH","Tech",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19],"OpenAI","AI","Trump","Claude","Politics","anthropic","Big Tech","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Ftrump-orders-federal-review-for-ai-model-releases-by-may-31-fkFzcRJf4hk3.jpg",2.65,2034.8481359999998,14131.663675999996,15347.60619,22015.69638,8326.444408799998,true,false,"2026-05-04T23:52:29.465Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2026-05-04T22:17:52.329Z","2026-05-30T10:33:06.591Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Ftrump-orders-federal-review-for-ai-model-releases-by-may-31?r=predstack",[35,36,37,38,39,40,41],"trump orders federal review of ai model releases by...?","trump orders federal review of ai model releases by...? prediction","trump orders federal review of ai model releases by...? odds","trump orders federal review of ai model releases by...? probability","technology prediction market","tech forecast","technology probability","2026-06-05T13:40:11.732Z","2026-05-30T10:43:20.937Z",0,[46,58,70],{"id":47,"title":48,"slug":49,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":50,"probability":53,"createdAt":54,"updatedAt":55,"resolutionDate":30,"description":56,"summary":56,"volume1wk":57,"featured":28},"57705","Which company has best AI model end of June?","which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june",[11,19,51,52,13,14],"GPT-5","Grok",13.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.365Z","2026-05-30T10:34:07.757Z","This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",1313459.0318739992,{"id":59,"title":60,"slug":61,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":62,"probability":65,"createdAt":66,"updatedAt":67,"resolutionDate":30,"description":68,"summary":68,"volume1wk":69,"featured":28},"117916","Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?","which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30",[11,14,63,64,52],"Business","DeepSeek",10.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:55.527Z","2026-05-30T10:40:19.799Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.\n",118988.89591899999,{"id":71,"title":72,"slug":73,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":74,"probability":76,"createdAt":77,"updatedAt":78,"resolutionDate":79,"description":80,"summary":80,"volume1wk":81,"featured":28},"376503","Which company has the third best AI model end of May?","which-company-has-the-third-best-ai-model-end-of-may",[11,19,14,75],"Rewards 20, 4.5, 50",97.45,"2026-05-30T10:43:01.898Z","2026-05-30T10:31:30.911Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",54539.83879999998,1780676595139]